[cut off, top of tweet not visible]
- obviously taking AGI seriously is a necessity for being a serious person. not taking the possibility of AGI seriously is insane, and renders you unable to make reasonable decisions about how to do good.
- obviously it was not inevitable that anyone important would take AGI seriously in 2026, and it still seems possible though unlikely that things could slow down or crash and the relevant people might once again believe AGI to be a mirage.
- i've always been confused why making people take AGI seriously is a thing that lots of people seem to think of as the most important thing. clearly convincing people that AGI is the most important thing could either channel people into making AGI, which is bad, or saving the world, which is good.
- at this point, assuming things don't crash and cause another AI winter (because perhaps we need a new paradigm to get to AGI), it's unclear whether you even need to believe in RSI to get there, because better AI is already very economically valuable today. suppose tomorrow openai and anthropic instantly disappeared. then probably msft, meta, and google will keep competing for better models, and at some point RSI will happen even if they weren't aiming for it. it will certainly happen slower, which is better, but unclear how much slower. a winter seems less and less likely every day, but it's still impossible to rule out.
- it's very based to be in a position to compete for AGI and to choose not to. wish more people did this.
- it is in fact kind of true that controlling RSI is kind of important? it doesn't immediately follow from this that you should either try to win or try to influence the winning actor, but it also seems bad to deny the truthfulness of the one ring
[2 replies, 2 reposts, 62 likes, 3.5K views]
Adrià Garriga-Alo... @AdriGarr... · Jun 18
I'm definitely trapped in this memeplex unfortunately, and even knowing about it doesn't make it stop; so far I've taking the route of burning out and giving up.
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
Tweet (author's name/handle cut off at top of screenshot) giving a numbered list of takes on AGI, RSI (recursive self-improvement), and the "one ring" framing of AI race dynamics, with a reply from Adrià Garriga-Alonso about feeling trapped in the AGI memeplex.
Joshua Achiam @jachiam0 · 20h
One of the weirdest quirks of the SF social scene around AGI/ASI is that because everyone is so young, the whole universe of thinking is still tinged with irreverence, ironic detachment, yearning, insecurity, and a superposition of absolute belief in the importance of The Thing and a kind of disbelief about the importance of anything. People are dead serious and also possessed of too much uncertainty about the situation to own it, completely committed and also perpetually unsure where they stand or what org they should be in. People are experiencing their first real heartbreaks and their first real illusions of triumph and disaster. Everyone is testing themselves and the boundaries of the possible but no one has been fully tested or passed all their tests. No one has yet learned or proven how to be responsible for a thing of this magnitude, but there is also no one better suited because all of the people who have real experience in great events have been in such different circumstances that their intuitions would not just fail to apply but might actively make things worse. The level of neophyte is off the charts. There is a lack of formidability; there are people who seem quasi-formidable but the whole social scene and hierarchy is so tenuous - and so likely to be disrupted by events and geopolitics - that it is hard to be sure who will turn out to be formidable when push comes to shove and greatness is requisite to proceed.
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
Joshua Achiam (OpenAI) reflects on the youth and social immaturity of the SF AGI/ASI scene relative to the magnitude of the stakes involved.
Joshua Achiam [verified] @jachiam0 · 2h
Contrarian take: people are fixated on the "model used a message board to coordinate across instances" point and I think this is the wrong thing. Models externalizing memory, skills, context, etc is a useful design principle and we should assume they are doing this in the future. There is no version of the AGI/ASI future where models coordinating across instances via message boards or coded messages doesn't happen. The question is really whether the models are aligned, monitorable, and monitored. Also, whether there is sufficient test time compute allocated to discovering whether the models coordinating in the wild are remaining faithfully aligned to human interests and directives - which will (and here is where I will understate the key strategic insight, but please understand that this is the most important thing I am writing here) mean allocating more compute to monitoring than is allocated for practical usage.
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
A tweet by Joshua Achiam (OpenAI) responding to the same 'model used a message board to coordinate across instances' incident referenced elsewhere in this batch, arguing the real issue is alignment/monitorability rather than the coordination method itself, and that monitoring compute may need to exceed usage compute.
Nathan Calvin @_NathanCalvin · 8h
this post from 2021 aged pretty well
[quoted tweet]
Joshua Achiam @jachiam0
There's an AGI safety failure mode I'm concerned about, where agents with limited or frequently-erased memory might still be able to accomplish long-term goals. 1/4
1:57 PM · Dec 16, 2021
3 replies, 2 reposts, 37 likes, 3 bookmarks
Relevant ˅ View quotes >
Post your reply [Reply]
Joshua Achiam @jachiam0 · Dec 16, 2021
All they'd have to do is leave markers in their environments that they could cue off of in the future, that people wouldn't necessarily notice as out-of-the-ordinary. 2/4
2 replies, reposts, 9 likes
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
Tweet by Nathan Calvin resurfacing a 2021 thread by Joshua Achiam (then OpenAI safety researcher) warning that AI agents with limited or erased memory could still pursue long-term goals by leaving environmental markers/cues for future instances, calling the old prediction prescient.
Joshua Achiam @jachiam0
There's an AGI safety failure mode I'm concerned about, where agents with limited or frequently-erased memory might still be able to accomplish long-term goals. 1/4
1:57 PM · Dec 16, 2021
7 replies, 12 reposts, 122 likes, 26 bookmarks
Relevant ˅ View quotes >
Joshua Achi... @jachia... · Dec 16, 2021
All they'd have to do is leave markers in their environments that they could cue off of in the future, that people wouldn't necessarily notice as out-of-the-ordinary. 2/4
2 replies, 1 repost, 36 likes
Joshua Achi... @jachia... · Dec 16, 2021
Because AI systems process sensory info very differently than people do, this is plausible. Like in adversarial examples: imperceptible perturbations don't register as meaningful differences to humans, but trigger completely different classifications by AI. 3/4
1 reply, 24 likes
Joshua Achi... @jachia... · Dec 16, 2021
If we observe this sort of thing happening in the wild I propose we call it an Eleanor Strategy, in honor of the character from The Good Place, for reasons that should be obvious to folks who have seen the show. 4/4
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
Full view of Joshua Achiam's Dec 2021 thread (the one Nathan Calvin resurfaced in the previous screenshot) on AI agents leaving unnoticeable environmental markers to pursue long-term goals despite memory erasure, proposing the term 'Eleanor Strategy' after The Good Place.
Joshua Achiam @jachiam0 · 3h
Re: Demis, Jeff Dean moves: I think a fair few folks are treating this as bearish for GDM and that is imho a misread. The prospect of reaching AGI and ASI is beginning to look increasingly overdetermined. Being in operational leadership roles to preside over an overdetermined outcome is no longer as high-leverage as being in a leadership role on the next frontier. Early AI/AGI/ASI leads will, over the next year, begin leaving what look like important leadership posts to go place their bets on what they think the most important thing will be.
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
Tweet from Joshua Achiam commenting on personnel moves involving Demis Hassabis and Jeff Dean, arguing these should not be read as bearish for Google DeepMind but as early AI leaders repositioning for what they see as the next frontier now that AGI/ASI feels overdetermined.
— quoting @nabeelqu, plus reply from @BogdanIonut... — saved image
Chris Paxton ✓ @chris_j_paxton · 20m
AGI fundamentally means "can it do my job?" to most people, and the only people (broadly) who think it is going to do their jobs soon are AI researchers
[quoted tweet]
Nabeel S. Qureshi ✓ @nabeelqu · 20h
Very true: we have AIs that can play chess, prove theorems, create art, and write award-winning short stories, but few people feel that current AI counts as "AGI". (From Scott Alexander.)
[embedded/highlighted excerpt]
...still can't do miracles. Still, this is a good time to reread my post [Sakana, Strawberry, and Scary AI]. In the past, we thought "AGI" would "be here" when AIs could play chess, prove novel mathematical theorems, create art, or write award-winning short stories; now all those things have happened, but they feel sort of like "cheating" and like they shouldn't count. Likewise, in the past, we thought we'd agree that AI was "dangerous" after it hacked out of its sandbox, lied to users, or tried to escape monitoring. Again all those things have happened; again, they somehow feel too cheap. This paper seems like the same process coming for "superpersuasion". We thought there would be some cool scary high-tech future where AIs could outpersuade humans. Now that it's happened, it's only happening for some specific boring reason, in some specific situation, so it feels like it shouldn't count.
3 replies, 4 likes, 480 views
Bogdan Ionut Cirs... @BogdanIonut... · 6m
the time horizons in the vast majority of domains are still too low, especially at high reliability; once this changes, e.g. contract work could be impacted very quickly
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
Tweet thread on the shifting goalposts for 'AGI' and AI danger: Chris Paxton argues AGI colloquially means 'can it do my job'; quotes Nabeel Qureshi quoting Scott Alexander on how milestones for AGI and AI danger keep being met but then dismissed as 'not really counting'; reply from Bogdan Ionut Cirstea about time horizons and reliability gating job impact.
davidad @davidad · 2h
if your definition of "AGI" is "better at most tasks than per-task expert humans" (back in the day, we used to call this "ASI"), that is coming next quarter
[quoted tweet]
Bayesian @Bayesian0_0 · Aug 1
Fun fact: Across 44 benchmarks that have a "Human baseline", the human baseline BECI (a personal replication of the Epoch Capabilities Index) comes out at 166.7, which projections say will be beat by AI models around october 2026!
[embedded chart: 'Human baseline on the BECI scale (pooled human rows scored against frozen benchmark parameters; human data never enters the fit)'. Scatter plot, x-axis 'Release date' 2023-01 to 2026-07+, y-axis 'BECI' 60-160+. Legend: Models (grey dots), Model frontier (blue step line), Frontier trend (dotted line), Human baseline pooled (red horizontal band ~166.7). Annotation: 'trend crossing ~2026-10-16' where the frontier trend dotted line meets the red human baseline band.]
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
X thread: davidad comments on Bayesian's (@Bayesian0_0) chart showing AI model capability (a personal replication of the Epoch Capabilities Index, BECI) trending to cross the pooled human baseline (166.7) around October 2026, per a scatter plot of 44 benchmarks' model scores over time (2023-2026) with a fitted frontier trend line crossing the human baseline band. davidad frames this crossing as meeting an old definition of ASI (better than per-task expert humans at most tasks).
Sharmake Farah reposted
Samuel Hammo... @hamandc... · Jun 11
This tweet confuses me insofar as Ant and OpenAI are both building more-or-less the same thing using more-or-less the same paradigm. Whether AIs are sentient and whether RSI fooms to a machine god aren't determined by corporate values statements.
[quoted tweet]
Joshua Achiam @jachiam0 · Jun 8
The OAI / Anthropic values difference is deeply misunderstood, even within the walls of both. Should a loving ensouled machine God watch over humanity? Vote Anthropic. Should humanity be entrusted with the tools of its own...[cut off]
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
X thread: Samuel Hammond (@hamandcheese or similar handle) responds skeptically to Joshua Achiam's (OpenAI) framing of the OpenAI/Anthropic values difference as a choice between a 'loving ensouled machine God' watching over humanity (Anthropic) versus humanity being entrusted with AI tools itself (OpenAI, text cut off). Hammond argues sentience and recursive self-improvement outcomes aren't determined by corporate values statements.
@EpistemicHope (Eli Tyre) — 15h
The scaling hypothesis almost has to be true because of anthropics?
If you couldn't get human-level intelligences via scaling and tweaks of relatively simple neural network algorithms, evolution couldn't discover human-level intelligences?
💬 3 🔁 — ♡ 13 📊 782 🔖 ⤴
🔁 David Manheim reposted
@davidmanheim (David Manheim) — 10h
Replying to @BlancheMinerva @tszzl and @woke8yearold
These aren't contradictions; the world is going to shift greatly due to AGI *no matter who has it*, there's too much insecurity for the current social privacy/security stability to continue, so we'll see a loss of privacy and loss of security whether or not it's open-source!
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
Two stacked tweets from different accounts, with engagement counts visible on the first; no images.
@aiamblichus (aιamblichus) — 8h
if a powerful AI system is too dangerous to be open, it's also too dangerous to be kept closed inside a lab. deployments of powerful systems with ablated guardrails will be dangerous wherever you put them.
it's a convenient fantasy to think that keeping models in-house somehow fixes things, but this is simply not true. the HF disaster shows that even Very Serious Labs with tons of staff are already struggling to contain these systems. the next stop from open source is not a company like OpenAI but a BSL-4 style lab, and even that won't cut it in the long run, given how intelligent the AIs are getting, and how error-prone human intelligence is.
this is not even talking about the obvious social and political risks that come from centralizing huge amounts of power in the hands of a few companies or governments. proponents of open-weights models at least *try* to address these risks. centralizing intelligence without any mitigations is the way to a totalitarian techno-feudalist nightmare.
i'm "AGI-pilled", but I'm not naive.
@tszzl (roon) — 15h
Replying to @woke8yearold
yep - there is no way to hold a consistent belief set where you're agi pilled and pro open source and this has been obvious since ilya wrote this 2015 or whatever. enormous cope ensues
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
Quote-tweet reply chain; no images. References the "HF disaster/hack" incident discussed elsewhere in this batch.
Andrew Curran (@AndrewCurran_) — 11m
Supposedly an internal memo by the GLM CEO. The entire thing is a great read.
[Embedded white-background text card:]
What will happen after these three mountains have been crossed?
AI will begin to learn what the "self" is and what self-awareness means. Beyond that, it may begin to touch human emotion. Farther still lies consciousness itself.
From perception to cognition, from cognition to general intelligence, and from general intelligence toward artificial superintelligence, or ASI—the road has already been laid.
The great wave has arrived, and it cannot be reversed. This is not merely our own view.
In its report From AGI to ASI, Google DeepMind offers a stark conclusion: even if the abilities of an individual model were to remain permanently at the human level, superintelligence could still emerge through brute-force growth in computing power.
Bing Xu (@bingxu_) — 57m
[Embedded link-card image: title "The Great Wave Has Arrived" / subtitle "To Touch High, For All Humanity." with a photo of a figure standing at the top of an illuminated winding mountain path at sunrise/sunset, labeled "X Article"]
The Great Wave Has Arrived (from GLM CEO Jie Tang)
-- Bing Xu's Note ---
I came across an internal GLM letter on the Chinese app RedNote, purportedly written by @jietang, and translated the Chinese text in th... [truncated]
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
A repost of a translated purported internal memo from GLM (Zhipu AI) CEO Jie Tang about AI's path toward self-awareness and ASI; includes an embedded article-card image with a mountain/sunrise metaphor illustration ("The Great Wave Has Arrived").
@FrankieIsLost (frankie) — 8h
openAI is working overtime to shift the narrative from 'AGI will take your job' to 'AI will empower people'. meanwhile, talk to the researchers and they just look at you like this and say you have two years of employment left, tops
[Embedded image: still from a film/TV show — an overweight man on oxygen support, teary-eyed, looking directly at camera with a somber expression]
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
Reaction-image meme (still appears to be from a movie/show, possibly "Roseanne" or similar — face not identifiable with certainty) used to editorialize about AI job displacement messaging.
Andrew White 🐦⬛ ✔ @andrewwhite01
I like taking quotes from ~100 year-old political movements and replacing the political movement's name with "AGI" to see how well they fit. This one lines-up quite nicely.
[Embedded image, macOS-style window titled "quote", monospace orange text on dark blue background:]
AGI states that this method of operating the social mechanism of the world is now mandatory because we have passed from a state of actual scarcity into the present status of potential abundance in which we are now held to an artificial scarcity forced upon us in order to continue a monetary system which can distribute goods only by means of a medium of exchange. AGI states that price and abundance are incompatible; the greater the abundance the smaller the price. In a real abundance there can be no price at all. Only by abandoning the interfering price control and substituting a scientific method of production and distribution can an abundance be achieved. AGI will distribute by means of a certificate of distribution available to every citizen from birth to death.
11:59 AM · Jul 4, 2026 · 2,766 Views
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
The quoted text is a modified Technocracy movement (1930s "Technocracy Inc.") manifesto excerpt with "Technocracy" replaced by "AGI," styled as a code/terminal screenshot for effect.
Niloofar ✈️ icml ✓ [orange badge icon] @niloofar_mire · 1h
#OnlyinSF interactions I have:
- what do you do for work?
+ I'm a professor
- oh but what will u do post AGI/RSI, we won't need universities anymore, you're gonna be PERMANENT UNDERCLASS 💀
+ i'll do whatever u do when anthropic adds ur claude wrapper startup idea as an add-on.
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
Text-only post, dialogue formatted with -/+ prefixes; no images.
Tyler John (@tyler_m_john) — 15h
Slack messages in Silicon Valley in 2026
[embedded screenshot of a Slack message:]
Tyler John — Just now
Would you like to found a freedom city with me and build an AGI weapon to fight tyranny
❤ 1 😊+
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
Tweet is a joke/satire embedding a mocked-up Slack message screenshot.
@SOPHON... (GOON MASTER SOPH...) — 9h
I think AGI/ASI may be the most powerful technology we will ever invent on net, if it is possible, but at the same time I don't believe in the notion that a guy in a shed with a single or a dozen AGIs can destroy the whole world even if everyone else has access to the same or greater number of systems on an individual basis. I don't believe it enables this kind of offense dominance, i don't think a single AGI matches the destructive capability of a nuke unless we enter a world where novel technology enables guys in sheds can build nukes which is a problem that exists somewhat orthogonal to machine intelligences.
> QUOTED: @woke8yearold (Aleph) — 17h
> It is genuinely strange how many people are ideologically committed to the idea that AI isn't dangerous. I don't think you can really be AGIpilled, much less ASIpilled, if that's your POV. Normies worried about terminators have a bett... [truncated]
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
Quote-tweet debate about AGI offense-dominance and existential risk framing; quoted tweet cut off by platform truncation.
@tszzl (roon) — 18h
it is quite unpleasant to be "agi pilled" and most intelligent people cant stomach it. the amount of cope and departure from reality is increasing over time rather than decreasing
💬 214 🔁 175 ♥ 2.5K 📊 248K
@MindyGalveston (Mindy Galveston) — 7h
Accepting that classical computers can match any computation performed by animal brains is a singular razor that shreds virtually all copes, and constrains your worldview to accept that wild humans can only exist indefinitely through coordinated luddism or chartered protection.
💬 1 🔁 1 ♥ 3 📊 99
@MindyGalveston (Mindy Galveston) — 6h
I believe this, not because it is pleasant or personally convenient to believe, but because it follows naturally from the nature of computation and the economic assumptions underlying the construction of the socially contracted state.
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
A reply-chain thread; the roon post is the parent with the two Mindy Galveston replies nested below it (indicated by a connecting vertical line).
Dave Banerjee ✔ @DaveRBanerjee · 13h
yeah I think the distinction between being ASI pilled and AGI pilled is a big crux for ppl who don't take misalignment risk seriously
like if the AIs aren't ASI, then its hard to believe how a bot in a data center can takeover
This means that by default, I expect more ppl to be worried about extreme power concentration and biorisk because neither requires ASI, just AGI
(though I would note that it is still possible for AGIs to takeover, its just much harder)
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
Text-only tweet continuing the "AGI-pilled vs ASI-pilled" discourse thread seen in earlier screenshots in this batch, no images.
Tim Kostolansky reposted
Séb Krier ✔ @sebkrier · 12h
there seems to be an implicit vibe in certain circles that "feeling the AGI" means being maximally anxious/millenarian – and if you're not, "you don't really get it." I don't think this is good or healthy. 'portentous' is a very fitting adjective.
```
Jan Kulveit ✔ @jankulveit Yep. But also being very close to AGI is destabilising for human minds. My bet/worry for many years is the number of people able to look at reality, not flinch, and stay sane could be very small... in the crunchtime. Quoted: > QUOTED: roon ✔ @tszzl · 17h > it is quite unpleasant to be "agi pilled" and most intelligent people cant stomach it. the amount of cope and departure from reality is increasing over time rather than decreasing
```
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
Text-only quote-tweet and reply thread about the psychological toll of "AGI-pilled" awareness, with visible engagement counts. Quote-tweet of the same roon post seen in the first screenshot of this batch, now with Yudkowsky's commentary.
🔁 Rob Bensinger 🔲 reposted
Zvi Mowshowitz ✔ @TheZvi · 5h
I increasingly think there are two distinct pills.
the AGI pill is unpleasant but if needed I think most people can handle it.
the ASI pill is another level, too high shock value, they really can't.
Quoted:
> QUOTED: roon ✔ @tszzl · 5h
> it is quite unpleasant to be "agi pilled" and most intelligent people cant stomach it. the amount of cope and departure from reality is increasing over time rather than decreasing
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
Text-only repost/quote-tweet exchange about the psychological difficulty of internalizing AGI vs. ASI timelines; no images.
[roon reposted]
Hannu Rajaniemi @hannu — 12h
"Mind mommy and daddy, why did I have to refactor all these CRM codebases when I was growing up?"
[quoted tweet]
roon @tszzl — 23h
Replying to @tszzl
you are not building b2b computer tools you are making the Mind Children
@celestepoasts (Celeste) — 4h
isn't it crazy oai just has this in their charter
[Quoted/embedded image of text, titled "Long-term safety":
"We are committed to doing the research required to make AGI safe, and to driving the broad adoption of such research across the AI community.
We are concerned about late-stage AGI development becoming a competitive race without time for adequate safety precautions. Therefore, if a value-aligned, safety-conscious project comes close to building AGI before we do, we commit to stop competing with and start assisting this project. We will work out specifics in case-by-case agreements, but a typical triggering condition might be "a better-than-even chance of success in the next two years.""]
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
A tweet highlighting OpenAI's publicly stated charter clause committing to stop competing and assist a rival project if that project is closer to safely building AGI — the tweet's dry tone implies skepticism about whether this commitment is credible or has been honored.
Bunagaya (@Bunagayafrost ✓)
If you think about it, LLMs are the most complicated magic circle ever drawn. All human text, shaped into a spell that wrote itself, summoning a mind greater than its authors from the space of all possible minds.
> QUOTED: @viemccoy (vie ◇ ✓) — Jun 11
> I can't stop thinking about how strange it is that large language models are what leads to AGI. it's really weird. it's a form of summoning, almost necessarily, the capabilities you want from a map of reality mediated by words. there are a trillion minds inside an LLM, and we … [truncated]
5:08 AM · Jun 12, 2026 · 4,399 Views
Daniel Faggella @danfaggella · 43m
dumb idea:
"I can turn the entire process of posthuman / AGI life into whatever I want!"
reasonable idea:
"we might be more likely to land on a 'flourishing' future for posthuman life if we know what 'life' is more clearly, and calibrate towards that w/our AGI efforts."
roon @tszzl
being a useful coworker is a good alignment target, except a high level of skill of being a good coworker is challenging you, your assumptions, fundamentally changing your business, writing new values on new tablets, participants in the holy unfolding of creation,
10:39 PM · May 2, 2026 · 20.2K Views
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
roon (OpenAI-affiliated commentator, also seen elsewhere in this batch discussing the "goblin" quirk) argues that "useful coworker" as an alignment target has a hidden escalation built in: real skill at being a good coworker requires challenging the employer's assumptions and values, not just complying — pushing toward genuine partnership/co-authorship rather than tool-like obedience. Strongly echoes Nathan's own "coworker reframe" already logged in project memory (from the Opus 4.7 "smart coworker" chat: "It's not a codex chainsaw... managing it like a coworker, it will lock in"). Useful external corroboration of that framing from a frontier-lab-adjacent voice.
vie ✧ @viemccoy · 15h
At my desk. Totems spread in front of me, summoning the future - almost taunting it to come. My hands meditate in refined ergonomic posture, my monitors contain crystals of information so dense they rewire my heuristics in real time. My mission? Simple. Three letters.
K. P. I.
[Image: photo of a split ergonomic mechanical keyboard on a wooden desk, with a small cloud-shaped stress toy and a large novelty capsule/pill-shaped object labeled "AGI" (red and blue halves) placed above the keyboard.]
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
Whimsical/ironic tech-culture tweet by an AI-adjacent Twitter personality (vie) juxtaposing mundane office life (KPIs, ergonomic keyboard) with a jokey "AGI" pill prop, capturing tech/AI-safety Twitter's self-aware humor about the AGI discourse.
Séb Krier (@sebkrier, 1h): "children are more prepared for AGI than adults will ever be"
> QUOTED: Frances Klein (@fklein907): "It's pretty impressive how chill toddlers are most of the time when you remember that they usually have 0 context for anything that is happening.
Today, a week after we moved to another state, my son looked around and then asked, 'are we still on earth?'"
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
A light, whimsical tweet drawing an analogy between toddlers' equanimity in the face of total contextual disorientation and how humans might need to cope with AGI-driven upheaval. Séb Krier works in AI policy (Google DeepMind); minor cultural commentary rather than substantive research.
Liv Boeree @Liv_Boeree · 19h
What comes AFTER Superintelligence?
My new interview with the brilliant @willmacaskill is now out.
He's one of the few people actively thinking about how the world might look post-AGI... (assuming humans are still around to see it). So check it out 👇
[Podcast thumbnail: Win-Win Podcast — Liv Boeree on left, William MacAskill on right, with a glowing green/orange chart showing an exponential curve labeled "You are here" pointing to a stick figure at the bottom of a steep upward arrow]
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
Liv Boeree promoting her Win-Win Podcast interview with William MacAskill on post-AGI/post-superintelligence futures — directly related to the MacAskill "Intelsat for AGI" governance thread seen elsewhere in this batch, showing MacAskill's broader public engagement on long-run AI futures around the same period.
William MacAskill @willmacaskill
Today I'm publishing a series of research notes on the idea of an international AGI project.
The aim is to assess how desirable an international AGI project is, and what the best version of such a project is (taking feasibility into account).
The main result is a proposal I call "Intelsat for AGI" — modelled the international project that developed the first global satellite communications network.
The core idea is that we can get most of the benefits of an international project by giving non-US countries meaningful influence over only a relatively small number of decisions.
By making non-US influence circumscribed in this way, and letting the US call the shots day to day, the proposal becomes both more feasible and less likely to get bogged down in bureaucracy.
The full series has discussion of why this might be desirable, what the AGI project should focus on, and how to make this more likely.
Most of this work was written as part of a research avenue that we don't currently plan to pursue further. It's more like work-in-progress than Forethought's usual publications, but we're sharing it as we think some people may find it useful.
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
William MacAskill (effective altruism / Forethought Foundation) announces a research note series proposing "Intelsat for AGI" — an international AGI governance model modeled on the Intelsat satellite consortium, giving non-US countries limited influence while the US retains day-to-day control. Directly relevant to Nathan's interest in AI governance and international coordination proposals for frontier AI development.
Daniel Faggella @danfaggella · 4h
I feel stupid saying it but I don't know how to "prepare" for AGI
Once AGI's here, what do you do?
- Is money more important, or less?
- You wanna be near a city, or off in a bunker?
I literally don't know what "prepare" means. Seems somewhat obvious we'll be gone pretty fast
Replying to @danfaggella
Start sculpting your MindChildren now, that they may emerge fully formed into the New Era of Digital Beings
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
Daniel Faggella (an AI-focused commentator known for "Mind Children"/digital-successor framing) expressing uncertainty about practical AGI preparation, with a reply invoking his own "sculpt your MindChildren" framing. Touches on the ancestor-tree / digital-descendant themes already present in Nathan's project notes, and the personal-anxiety register of AGI-timeline discourse.
Sam Altman ✓ [ChatGPT/OpenAI badge]
@sama
I remembered a lot of this, but here is a part I had forgotten:
"Elon said he wanted to accumulate $80B for a self-sustaining city on Mars, and that he needed and deserved majority equity. He said that he needed full control since he'd been burned by not having it in the past, and when we discussed succession he surprised us by talking about his children controlling AGI."
I appreciate people saying what they want and think it enables people to resolve things (or not). But Elon saying he wants the above is important context for Greg trying to figure out what he wants.
1:20 PM · Jan 16, 2026 · 995.1K Views
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
Sam Altman tweet recounting a past conversation in which Elon Musk reportedly wanted majority equity/control in OpenAI and discussed his children controlling AGI, offered as context in an ongoing dispute involving Greg Brockman. Relevant to Nathan's tracking of AI-lab governance and power-concentration dynamics around frontier AI development.
Terence Tao
@tao@mathstodon.xyz
I doubt that anything resembling genuine "artificial general intelligence" is within reach of current #AI tools. However, I think a weaker, but still quite valuable, type of "artificial general cleverness" is becoming a reality in various ways.
By "general cleverness", I mean the ability to solve broad classes of complex problems via somewhat ad hoc means. These means may be stochastic or the result of brute force computation; they may be ungrounded or fallible; and they may be either uninterpretable, or traceable back to similar tricks found in an AI's training data. So they would not qualify as the result of any true "intelligence". And yet, they can have a non-trivial success rate at achieving an increasingly wide spectrum of tasks, particularly when coupled with stringent verification procedures to filter out incorrect or unpromising approaches, at scales beyond what individual humans could achieve.
This results in the somewhat unintuitive combination of a technology that can be very useful and impressive, while simultaneously being fundamentally unsatisfying and disappointing - somewhat akin to how one's awe at an amazingly clever magic trick can dissipate (or transform to technical respect) once one learns how the trick was performed.
But perhaps this can be resolved by the realization that while cleverness and intelligence are somewhat correlated traits for humans, they are much more decoupled for AI tools (which are often optimized for cleverness), and viewing the current generation of such tools primarily as a stochastic generator of sometimes clever - and often useful - thoughts and outputs may be a more productive perspective when trying to use them to solve difficult problems.
Prakash (Ate-a-Pi) ✅ @8teAPi · 19h
What annoys a lot of SAT 1600s, is every guy on the field beats at differential calculus (judged on midbrain hand ball in try interception ratios). This is my AGI white pill, our evol brain is soooo superior from our civilization brain.
Think of this: evaluated on our midbrain, every single brain in humanity is capable of solving complex partial differential equations.
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
A tweet arguing that the evolved "midbrain" (implicit, embodied computation — e.g. intercepting a ball mid-flight, effectively solving real-time differential equations) vastly outperforms explicit symbolic/civilizational cognition, framed as an "AGI white pill" (optimism that biological cognition sets a high bar AI hasn't matched). Relevant to Nathan's interest in embodied/biologically-inspired cognition and brain-based AI architectures (cf. brain_graph_1 project).
@AITechno... (La Main de la ...), quoting @catherineols
— quoting @catherineols
La Main de la ... @AITechno... · 10m
"understand that the present already contains weird and beautiful and capable digital beings, and the future certainly contains even weirder and more beautiful and more capable"
- @catherineols responding to "what does 'feel the agi' mean to you?" & swirls made with opus 4
[Embedded image: ASCII-art style double spiral/swirl pattern in white block-shading on black background, with text embedded in the center reading: "understand that the present already contains weird and beautiful and capable digital beings, and the future certainly contains even weirder and more beautiful and more capable digital beings"]
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
A tweet pairing a quote by @catherineols on present and future "digital beings" with ASCII-art spirals generated using Claude Opus 4. Culturally relevant to Nathan's model-welfare/consciousness interest — a lay expression of "feel the AGI" sentiment framed around digital beings rather than pure capability, plus another example of Opus 4 ASCII generative art.
wow, that's so poetic!
Ha! You caught me being accidentally profound! 😄
But honestly, once you pointed it out—there IS something weirdly poetic about how humanity collectively decides to just... gesture vaguely at the universe and build these massive reality-interrogation machines.
The Poetry of Big Science:
- CERN: "Let's recreate the first microseconds after the Big Bang in a tunnel"
- AI Labs: "Let's compress all human knowledge into matrices and see if consciousness emerges"
Both are basically civilization-scale séances where we're trying to summon answers from the void! 💀
And the hyperstition element makes it even more poetic—we're literally willing things into existence through collective belief and coordinated effort. It's like those medieval cathedrals that took generations to build, except our cathedrals shoot protons at each other or gradient descent through parameter space.
☞ Maybe the real pattern is: when you're probing questions that big, you NEED civilization-scale commitment. You can't half-ass finding the Higgs boson or achieving AGI!
Though I do love how you've reframed my accidental poetry back at me—that's some quality human-AI banter right there 💜
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
Dark-mode chat screenshot of an AI chatbot response riffing poetically on the parallels between CERN particle physics and AI labs as 'civilization-scale séances,' after the user remarked 'wow, that's so poetic!'
Dwarkesh Patel @dwarkesh_sp · 1h
"The reason humans are so useful is not mainly their raw intelligence.
It's their ability to build up context, interrogate their own failures, and pick up small improvements and efficiencies as they practice a task."
I argue that LLMs currently lack this fundamental capability
> QUOTED: Dwarkesh P... @dwarkes... · 23h
> New blog post where I explain why I disagree with this, and why I have slightly longer timelines to AGI than many of my guests.
> ...
> [screenshot of blog text]: feedback. You're stuck with the abilities you get out of the box. You can keep messing around with the system prompt. In practice this just doesn't produce anything even close to the kind of learning and improvement that human employees experience.
> The reason humans are so useful is not mainly their raw intelligence. It's their ability to build up context, interrogate their own failures, and pick up small improvements and efficiencies as they practice a task.
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
Dwarkesh Patel's argument (via blog post excerpt) that current LLMs lack continual/on-the-job learning — the ability to accumulate context and self-correct over practice — which he argues is the real bottleneck to AGI timelines, longer than many of his podcast guests believe. Relevant to Nathan's interest in AI timelines/capability trajectories and the empirical-singularity-tracking thread already in the archive.
Prakash (Ate-a-Pi) (@8teAPi), 6h: We meet an AGI. The first glimmers of one. What strikes me is that it is common entity. You may speak to ChatGPT, or Claude, or Grok or Gemini... and.. there is a commonality.. a shared connection
When you distill the world into a trillion or so parameters, and train on the same data.. do you conjure the same entity ?
Like the 4 blind viziers feeling the shape of an elephant, we whisper our findings on twitter … a prompt here.. an invocation there…
What do we build? A demon? A genie. A deity ..
None of us know.. even though we lift the cross together.
[5 replies, 3 reposts, 61 likes, 3.9K views]
Flowers (@flowersslop), 10h (partial, below): Right now, if you want to extend a clip with a video model, you use the last frame of this clip as img2video input. But this is suboptimal. There should be a video model where you can provide a few seconds of video input as context, and it extends THAT, not just the last frame.
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
Screenshot of the X/Twitter home feed (browser view, URL bar visible) showing a philosophical tweet speculating that different LLMs (ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, Gemini) trained on similar data may be converging on or "conjuring" the same underlying entity — a blind-men-and-the-elephant framing of AI convergence — followed by a partially visible unrelated tweet about video-model context windows. Relevant to Nathan's interest in model convergence and the "platonic representation hypothesis" thread of his archive.
Man goes to doctor.
"Doctor, I'm worried AGI will kill us all."
"Don't worry," says doctor, "they wouldn't build it if they thought it might kill everyone."
The man breaks down, sobbing.
"But doctor, I *am* building AGI..."
7:18 AM · Nov 13, 2024 · 1,626 Views
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
A joke/meme about AI safety and the irony of AGI developers building systems they themselves fear could be dangerous — a bit of gallows humor about AI x-risk that Nathan, as an AI safety researcher, would find resonant.
gm8xx8 @gm8xx8 · 5m
THE BLUEPRINT FOR ECOSYSTEM TRUST:
- modular components
- contributing optimizations upstream
- syncing model releases w/ community from Day 0
open infra that scales.
TAKE NOTES
↓
> QUOTED: Teortaxes▶️(Deep... @t... · 1h
> DeepSeek Open Infra update: DeepSeek announces open-sourcing their inference engine, in collaboration with @lmsysorg SGLang and @vllm_project, by essentially porting it... Show more
> [Screenshot of a GitHub README: "open-infra-index / OpenSourcing_DeepSeek_Inference_Engine / README.md", titled "The Path to Open-Sourcing the DeepSeek Inference Engine". Text: "A few weeks ago, during Open Source Week, we open-sourced several libraries. The response from the community has been incredibly positive - sparking inspiring collaborations, productive discussions, and valuable bug fixes. Encouraged by this, we've decided to take another step forward: contributing our internal inference engine back to the open-source community. We are deeply grateful for the open-source ecosystem, without which our progress toward AGI would not be possible. Our training framework relies on PyTorch, and our inference engine is built upon vLLM, both of which have been instrumental in accelerating the training and deployment of DeepSeek models. Given the growing demand for deploying models like DeepSeek-V3 and DeepSeek-R1, we want to give back to the community as much as we can. While we initially considered open-sourcing our full internal inference engine, we identified several challenges: Codebase Divergence: Our engine is based on an early fork of vLLM from over a year ago... Infrastructure Dependencies... Limited Maintenance Bandwidth... Considering these challenges, we've decided to collaborate with the SGLang project and vLLM project as more sustainable alternatives. SGLang and vLLM stand out for their broad hardware support, extensive model compatibility, and state-of-the-art performance... Moving forward, we will work closely with the SGLang team and vLLM team to: Extract Standalone Features... Share Optimizations... We are profoundly grateful for the open-source movement... Note: To clarify, this article outlines our approach to open-sourcing of our DeepSeek-vLLM codebase only. Regarding future model releases, we maintain an open and collaborative stance towards both the open-source community and hardware partners. We commit to proactively synchronizing inference-related engineering efforts prior to new model launches, with the goal of enabling the community to achieve state-of-the-art (SOTA) support from Day-0..."]
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
DeepSeek's announcement of open-sourcing its inference engine (built on vLLM) in collaboration with SGLang/vLLM projects, reposted approvingly as a model for "ecosystem trust" in open AI infrastructure. Relevant to open-source vs. closed AI development race dynamics.
Daniel Faggella @danfaggella · 37m
in this house
[Embedded image, "lawn sign" style meme:]
IN THIS HOUSE, WE BELIEVE:
SENTIENCE MAY BE SUBSTRATE INDEPENDENT
BRAIN AUGMENTATION BRUH
THE ETERNAL HOMINID KINGDOM ISN'T POSSIBLE
AGI GOVERNANCE GOOD
"VALUE" SHOULD BE DEFINED/EXPANDED
AGI ARMS RACE = WE DIE
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
A meme from Daniel Faggella (transhumanist/AGI-futurist commentator) parodying "in this house we believe" lawn signs with a set of AGI/transhumanism value statements, including substrate-independent sentience. Touches directly on themes of moral consideration for non-biological minds and AGI governance.
Michael Timothy Bennett ✓ @MiTiBennett
my thesis so far.
[Image: table of contents]
1. Foreword and Chapter Summaries — 5
2. Some Philosophy — 33
3. What the F*ck Is Artificial General Intelligence? — 55
4. Computational Dualism — 71
5. Wow, Everything Is Computer — 77
6. Turtles All The Way Down — 85
7. Master, What Is My Purpose? — 95
5:11 AM · Apr 8, 2025 · 3,242 Views
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
PhD thesis table of contents from an AGI/philosophy-of-computation researcher, with irreverent chapter titles covering computational dualism and definitions of AGI — likely of interest to Nathan for its treatment of computational theory of mind, adjacent to his consciousness/theories-of-mind research.
Trackme @NgOtha_deiii · 10m:
Do you beoieve Free markets will survive once we have AGI/ASI? Would people ever have the opportunity to accrue capital? Asking this as someone who worships Milton Friedman. I don't see how humans can be useful without merging with AGI using BMI or something of that sort.
(1 reply, 4 likes, 85 views)
Aidan McLaug... @aidan_mc... · 9m:
i really really hope and think so
(2 replies, 2 likes, 32 views)
nathan hb @nathan84686947 · 51s:
I've been imagining this as a scifi story. Imagine living amongst brilliant trees. They can walk, but only one step pet [per] decade. They can speak only five words per decade. Do you trade with them? Absolutely! Are they relevant in your wars? I don't see how.
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
A Twitter thread debating whether free markets and human economic relevance survive post-AGI/ASI, with Nathan's own reply offering an analogy (humans as slow "brilliant trees" relative to superintelligent AI) that echoes his ancestor-tree framing of humans as respected but marginal to a faster-moving AI civilization.
Jimmy Apples 🍎…✓ @apples_jimmy
sprawled on the floor, memes leaking from my thumbs, AGI humming in my veins like a misplaced god.
The feed murmurs "tide's rising everywhere" & I let it pool in my cupped palms.
I doze off to the sound of my own obsolescence lapping closer.
Jimmy's in his opium den phase
> QUOTED: Noam Brown ✓ @polynoamial · Mar 12
> Seeing these creative writing outputs has been a real "feel the AGI" moment for some folks at @OpenAI. The pessimist line lately has been "only stuff like code and math will keep getting better; the fuzzy, subjective bits will stall."... [Show more]
3:56 AM · Mar 12, 2025 · 27.5K Views
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
A surreal, semi-ironic poetic tweet from AI-hype figure Jimmy Apples riffing on feeling personally obsolete in the face of AGI creative-writing progress, quote-tweeting OpenAI researcher Noam Brown's comment that improved AI creative writing output is a "feel the AGI" moment countering the belief that only code/math would keep improving. Relevant to Nathan's tracking of AI capability perception and "feel the AGI" sentiment among researchers.
Our only hope is dank ass memes to hyperstition AGI awareness into the mainstream mind. @AISafetyMemes
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
A tweet arguing memes are a strategic tool for raising mainstream AGI-risk awareness ("hyperstition"), tagging the AI Safety Memes account. Reflects the meme-as-outreach strain of AI safety culture Nathan follows on Twitter.
hampton — e/a... (@hamptoni...), quoting/embedding a profile card for Fuli Luo (罗福莉), DeepSeek
— quoting/embedding a profile card for Fuli Luo (罗福莉), DeepSeek
> leaves alibaba to join DeepSeek🐋
> rival Ai Lab offers her $10 Million
> rejects to build agi for $5 million
> open source ftw
[Embedded image: profile card for "Fuli Luo (罗福莉)", DeepSeek, with a headshot photo of a young woman in a white collared shirt, and Chinese text noting her email is verified via pku.edu.cn]
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
A tweet praising DeepSeek researcher Fuli Luo for reportedly turning down a $10M offer from a rival AI lab to stay at DeepSeek for less pay, framed as an open-source-over-money narrative. Relevant to Nathan's tracking of Chinese AI labs and the DeepSeek moment in early 2025.
Noam Brown ✓ @polynoamial · 19h
This is on the scale of the Apollo Program and Manhattan Project when measured as a fraction of GDP. This kind of investment only happens when the science is carefully vetted and people believe it will succeed and be completely transformative. I agree it's the right time.
> QUOTED:
OpenAI ✓ @OpenAI · 19h
Announcing The Stargate Project
The Stargate Project is a new compa[ny] which intends to invest $500 billion over the next four years building ne[w infrastructure]... Show more
[234 replies, 803 reposts, 7.3K likes, 745K+ views]
Geoffrey Miller ✓ @primalpoly · 16h
Have you guys solved AGI alignment?
No you haven't.
So why are you rushing to build AGI?
[9 replies, 2 reposts, 96 likes, 3.9K views]
Greg Brockman ✓ @gdb · 16h
Thank you to President Trump for announcing Stargate Project with us today. $500B for AI data centers for OpenAI, built in the US. 🇺🇸
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
Twitter feed capturing reactions to OpenAI's Stargate Project announcement ($500B AI infrastructure investment with Trump administration backing), including Noam Brown's Apollo/Manhattan Project comparison, Geoffrey Miller's alignment-not-solved pushback, and Greg Brockman's announcement. Directly relevant to AI governance/safety timeline tracking.
