Tenobrus @tenobrus
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Tenobrus @tenobrus · 14h i basically think this is the Endgame. we've reached the point where another "capability doubling" over the course of the next four months brings us to very strongly superhuman performance in numerous areas things have *felt slow* for a long time because absolute capabilities have been well below many thresholds, but now that's just not true, and absolutely nothing indicates progress is slowing down. if anything the opposite. i can deeply hope that i'm wrong, that things stall out, that 2027 looks more like very impressive but still normal growth. but i just don't really believe that. or rather, i think the only way we get that is if we successfully enforce slowdown, which is itself a significant project. i think our default path looks like RSI by the end of 2027. this is the Endgame. the next *months* determine how it goes. if you have been waiting, if you have been worrying, if you have been thinking "maybe i should start figuring out how to help with ai safety", i think now is basically it. this is the last point where there's time to make an impact, the last point where u still can pull off a career shift and become effective and make a difference before it's finished. if you are in a phd program, or even undergrad, if you're working a job you're not too enthusiastic about that pays the bills, if you've been on the sidelines with capital or political power or in the labs not quite pushing as hard as you could this is the Endgame. now is the time. play all your [cut off]
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
Long post by Tenobrus arguing that the present is the 'Endgame': another capability doubling within four months would give strongly superhuman performance in many areas, the default path looks like recursive self-improvement by end of 2027, and anyone considering a move into AI safety should act now. Cut off at the bottom and partly overlaid by the phone's navigation bar.
endgamecapability doublingrsiai safetycareer adviceslowdowntimelines
