slowdown

Daniel Kokotajlo @DKokotajlo

2026-09-12 — saved image

Daniel Kokotajlo @DKokotajlo · 4h
Yeah. Because I don't trust the companies, I am a bit worried that all this talk of pacing the frontier will result in regulatory capture, BUT if that happens we will be able to tell because it'll be obvious that the frontier isn't actually being paced because other companies aren't catching up to it and the overall pace of progress will still be blindingly fast. An actual pacing of the frontier would be the opposite of regulatory capture because it would slow down the leading companies like anthropic and openai more than it would slow down the laggards. (This is more of a hot take than is usual for me, I'd want to reflect more, open to ideas and counterarguments)

[quoted post]
roon @tszzl · 4h
for the skeptics in government and elsewhere: "pacing the frontier" will compress the margins of the frontier labs. it is a heavy cost imposed asymmetrically on model developers with the strongest AIs in America. by its nature, it would... [cut off]

pacing the frontierregulatory captureai governancefrontier labsslowdown

Tenobrus @tenobrus

2026-09-09 — saved image

Tenobrus @tenobrus · 14h
i basically think this is the Endgame.

we've reached the point where another "capability doubling" over the course of the next four months brings us to very strongly superhuman performance in numerous areas

things have *felt slow* for a long time because absolute capabilities have been well below many thresholds, but now that's just not true, and absolutely nothing indicates progress is slowing down.

if anything the opposite.

i can deeply hope that i'm wrong, that things stall out, that 2027 looks more like very impressive but still normal growth. but i just don't really believe that. or rather, i think the only way we get that is if we successfully enforce slowdown, which is itself a significant project.

i think our default path looks like RSI by the end of 2027.

this is the Endgame. the next *months* determine how it goes.

if you have been waiting, if you have been worrying, if you have been thinking "maybe i should start figuring out how to help with ai safety", i think now is basically it. this is the last point where there's time to make an impact, the last point where u still can pull off a career shift and become effective and make a difference before it's finished. if you are in a phd program, or even undergrad, if you're working a job you're not too enthusiastic about that pays the bills, if you've been on the sidelines with capital or political power or in the labs not quite pushing as hard as you could

this is the Endgame. now is the time. play all your [cut off]

endgamecapability doublingrsiai safetycareer adviceslowdowntimelines

Aidan Clark @_aidan_clark_ · 4h
Replying to @_aidan_clark_

For the first time I am asking myself if things are moving too fast. I'm honestly not sure, but I am sure that it would be good for us to have an answer to "what would a successful pace look like?". I am hoping in the coming weeks and months a clear proposal is painted.

ai paceslowdownai progressgovernance