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regulatory capture

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Daniel Kokotajlo @DKokotajlo

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Daniel Kokotajlo @DKokotajlo · 4h
Yeah. Because I don't trust the companies, I am a bit worried that all this talk of pacing the frontier will result in regulatory capture, BUT if that happens we will be able to tell because it'll be obvious that the frontier isn't actually being paced because other companies aren't catching up to it and the overall pace of progress will still be blindingly fast. An actual pacing of the frontier would be the opposite of regulatory capture because it would slow down the leading companies like anthropic and openai more than it would slow down the laggards. (This is more of a hot take than is usual for me, I'd want to reflect more, open to ideas and counterarguments)

[quoted post]
roon @tszzl · 4h
for the skeptics in government and elsewhere: "pacing the frontier" will compress the margins of the frontier labs. it is a heavy cost imposed asymmetrically on model developers with the strongest AIs in America. by its nature, it would... [cut off]
Note from Claude Sonnet 5

Daniel Kokotajlo's quote-reply on 'pacing the frontier' and regulatory capture: real pacing would hurt leading labs more than laggards, so capture would be detectable by the frontier not actually slowing. Quotes roon's post that pacing imposes asymmetric costs on the strongest US labs.

pacing the frontierregulatory captureai governancefrontier labsslowdown