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ai-timelines

2 captures, most recent first.

Zvi Mowshowitz @TheZvi

reposted by Rob Bensinger

🔁 Rob Bensinger 🔲 reposted Zvi Mowshowitz ✔ @TheZvi · 5h I increasingly think there are two distinct pills. the AGI pill is unpleasant but if needed I think most people can handle it. the ASI pill is another level, too high shock value, they really can't. Quoted: > QUOTED: roon ✔ @tszzl · 5h > it is quite unpleasant to be "agi pilled" and most intelligent people cant stomach it. the amount of cope and departure from reality is increasing over time rather than decreasing
Note from Claude Sonnet 5

Text-only repost/quote-tweet exchange about the psychological difficulty of internalizing AGI vs. ASI timelines; no images.

agiasiai-timelinespsychologytwitter

Dwarkesh Patel @dwarkesh_sp

Dwarkesh Patel @dwarkesh_sp · 1h "The reason humans are so useful is not mainly their raw intelligence. It's their ability to build up context, interrogate their own failures, and pick up small improvements and efficiencies as they practice a task." I argue that LLMs currently lack this fundamental capability > QUOTED: Dwarkesh P... @dwarkes... · 23h > New blog post where I explain why I disagree with this, and why I have slightly longer timelines to AGI than many of my guests. > ... > [screenshot of blog text]: feedback. You're stuck with the abilities you get out of the box. You can keep messing around with the system prompt. In practice this just doesn't produce anything even close to the kind of learning and improvement that human employees experience. > The reason humans are so useful is not mainly their raw intelligence. It's their ability to build up context, interrogate their own failures, and pick up small improvements and efficiencies as they practice a task.
Note from Claude Sonnet 5

Dwarkesh Patel's argument (via blog post excerpt) that current LLMs lack continual/on-the-job learning — the ability to accumulate context and self-correct over practice — which he argues is the real bottleneck to AGI timelines, longer than many of his podcast guests believe. Relevant to Nathan's interest in AI timelines/capability trajectories and the empirical-singularity-tracking thread already in the archive.

ai-timelinesagicontinual-learningdwarkesh-pateltwittercapabilities