eli lifland

Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🚀 (verified) @peterwildeford - If you continue the METR trend, you see ~100h models by end of the year! (~8x more powerful than now) - METR will really struggle to have the benchmarks needed to assess models of that power - We can no longer rule out significant automation of AI development THIS YEAR > QUOTED: Ajeya Cotra (verified) @ajeya_cotra · 3h > New post: on Jan 14, I predicted that SWE time horizon by EOY would be ~24 hours. Now I think it'll be >100 hours, and maybe unbounded. For the first time, I don't see solid evidence against AI R&D automation *this year.* Link below. > [Embedded text card:] 50% METR time horizon: 24 hours. Currently, Claude Opus 4.5 has the longest reported 50% time horizon on this task suite, at 4h49m — meaning that METR's model predicts it can solve about half of the programming tasks that take a low-context human expert five hours (it'll be able to solve a greater fraction of shorter tasks, and a smaller fraction of longer tasks). My median for the longest 50% time horizon reported as of Dec 31, 2026 is 24 hours (20th percentile 15 hours, 80th percentile is that it's too long for METR to accurately bound in practice but probably around 40 hours in "reality"). 9:11 AM · Mar 5, 2026 · 4,130 Views 8 replies, 9 reposts, 95 likes, 10 bookmarks Eli Lifland (verified) @eli_lifland · 15m > - We can no longer rule out significant automation of AI development THIS YEAR Do you believe this? Previously you've predicted 2% on AGI by end of 2027

Eli Lifland @eli_lifland Here is a graph of roughly Daniel and my AGI timelines medians over time. We have updated in both directions in the past and expect to likely do so in the future. (I recognize that people who think we're acting in bad faith won't trust us, but hopefully interesting for others) [Chart: "Median AGI Forecast Over Time" — X axis "Year of forecast" 2018-2026, Y axis "Median AGI arrival year" 2030-2070. Daniel's line (orange): 2070 (2018) → 2050 (2019) → ~2032 (2020) → ~2029 (2021) → ~2027 (2022) → ~2027 (2023) → ~2027 (2024) → ~2028 (2025) → 2030 (2026). Eli's line (blue): starts 2021 at 2060 → 2050 (2022) → 2035 (2024) → 2032 (2025) → 2031 (2025) → 2035 (2026).] Quoted/embedded own tweet: Eli Lifland @eli_lifland · 22h When we published AI 2027, we thought 2027 was one of the most likely years AGI would arrive. But it was not our **median** forecast, those ranged among authors from 2028-2035. Now our medians have moved back a bit, but our most likely year is still ~2028.... 7:23 AM · Nov 22, 2025 · 36.5K Views 23 replies, 26 reposts, 241 likes, 55 bookmarks