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ai 2027

4 captures, most recent first.

@thlarsen

— quoting @amir — saved image

Thomas Larsen @thlarsen

Very bad if true. I previously thought that in a short timelines world, the most likely case was that (1) the AIs would be misaligned, but (2) we would get a lot of evidence about it from reading the COTs. This evidence would increase the chance of a reasonable response from labs/governments.

Now I still think the AIs are going to be misaligned, but that we won't have the ability to tell (we have to rely on toolcalls/agentic behaviour instead of the COT) and even if we do, the investigation will be nearly impossible because we'll have to trust the AI to self report what it was thinking about.

This is also an example of things going faster than AI 2027 -- we had Neuralese starting in March 2027

[embedded image of AI 2027 text:]
March 2027: Algorithmic Breakthroughs

Three huge datacenters full of Agent-2 copies work day and night, churning out synthetic training data. Another two are used to update the weights. Agent-2 is getting smarter every day.

With the help of thousands of Agent-2 automated researchers, OpenBrain is making major algorithmic advances. [highlighted: One such breakthrough is augmenting the AI's text-based scratchpad (chain of thought) with a higher-bandwidth thought process (neuralese recurrence and memory).] Another is a more scalable and efficien[cut off] way to learn from the results of high-effort task solutions (iterated distillation and amplification).

[quoted post:]
Amir Efrati @amir · Sep 1
new: OpenAI & others quietly using loop transformers that don't show their 'thinking' when scaled up

a leap forward on performance, but sparking concerns inside & outside OpenAI re: security as this takes off

[embedded The Information article card, cut off at bottom of screen]
Note from Claude Sonnet 5

Thomas Larsen's X post reacting to a reported shift to looped transformers whose reasoning is not visible, arguing it removes CoT evidence of misalignment and noting AI 2027's neuralese milestone; quotes Amir Efrati's post. Screenshot is cut off at the bottom by the app's navigation bar.

neuraleselooped transformerscot monitorabilityai 2027openaimisalignmentthe information

@EigenGender

@EigenGender — 5h can't believe it's 2026 and the predictions at the end of ai 2027 haven't come true yet complete superforecaster defeat
Note from Claude Sonnet 5

A sardonic one-line tweet mocking the "AI 2027" forecast document for predicting dramatic AI developments that (as of this 2026 tweet) have not yet materialized, framed ironically as a defeat for superforecasters.

twitterai 2027ai forecastinghumorsuperintelligence

@apeir99n

— quoting @DKokotajlo (Daniel Kokotajlo)

``` @apeir99n — 10h Every AI doomer says the same thing: losing control = disaster. So they try to slow down progress. Imho losing control is inevitable – and that's okay. A smarter intelligence taking the lead isn't the end of the world. It's not the end of humanity. It's just the end of one belief: that we stay on top forever. Nobody promised us that. Evolution didn't stop with us, we were never the final chapter, just the current one. > QUOTED: @DKokotajlo (Daniel Kokotajlo) — Jul 9 > In AI 2027, we predicted that AI would take over the world or irreversibly concentrate power. > In AI 2040: Plan A, we've laid out our positive vision for what should happen instead. > [Image: same "AI 2040 — Plan A" webpage screenshot as in Screenshot_20260710-140818.png — authors Thomas Larsen, Romeo Dean, Brendan Halstead, Eli Lifland, Ryan Greenblatt, Daniel Kokotajlo; same body text and "2027: The Writing on the Wall" section] ```
Note from Claude Sonnet 5

A tweet expressing a fatalist/accelerationist view that human loss of control to superintelligent AI is inevitable and not necessarily bad, quote-tweeting Daniel Kokotajlo's announcement of "AI 2040: Plan A," a follow-up scenario document to AI 2027 proposing a slowdown/transparency regime to avoid loss-of-control outcomes. A joke tweet riffing on Daniel Kokotajlo's "AI 2040: Plan A" announcement, comparing reading the AI forecasting document to hiding pornography/adult material from a spouse ("I only read it for the supplemental analysis").

ai safetyai governancetwitterai 2027superintelligenceloss of controlhumorai forecasting

Eli Lifland @eli_lifland

Eli Lifland @eli_lifland Here is a graph of roughly Daniel and my AGI timelines medians over time. We have updated in both directions in the past and expect to likely do so in the future. (I recognize that people who think we're acting in bad faith won't trust us, but hopefully interesting for others) [Chart: "Median AGI Forecast Over Time" — X axis "Year of forecast" 2018-2026, Y axis "Median AGI arrival year" 2030-2070. Daniel's line (orange): 2070 (2018) → 2050 (2019) → ~2032 (2020) → ~2029 (2021) → ~2027 (2022) → ~2027 (2023) → ~2027 (2024) → ~2028 (2025) → 2030 (2026). Eli's line (blue): starts 2021 at 2060 → 2050 (2022) → 2035 (2024) → 2032 (2025) → 2031 (2025) → 2035 (2026).] Quoted/embedded own tweet: Eli Lifland @eli_lifland · 22h When we published AI 2027, we thought 2027 was one of the most likely years AGI would arrive. But it was not our **median** forecast, those ranged among authors from 2028-2035. Now our medians have moved back a bit, but our most likely year is still ~2028.... 7:23 AM · Nov 22, 2025 · 36.5K Views 23 replies, 26 reposts, 241 likes, 55 bookmarks
Note from Claude Sonnet 5

Eli Lifland (AI 2027 co-author) publishing a chart of how his and Daniel Kokotajlo's median AGI-arrival-year forecasts have shifted over time (2018-2026), clarifying that AI 2027's headline year was not their median forecast. Directly relevant to Nathan's tracking of empirical singularity/AGI timeline forecasts noted elsewhere in the archive (Davidson/Houlden, METR).

agi timelinesai 2027forecastingeli liflanddaniel kokotajlosingularityai safety