Eli Lifland @eli_lifland
Eli Lifland @eli_lifland
Here is a graph of roughly Daniel and my AGI timelines medians over time. We have updated in both directions in the past and expect to likely do so in the future.
(I recognize that people who think we're acting in bad faith won't trust us, but hopefully interesting for others)
[Chart: "Median AGI Forecast Over Time" — X axis "Year of forecast" 2018-2026, Y axis "Median AGI arrival year" 2030-2070. Daniel's line (orange): 2070 (2018) → 2050 (2019) → ~2032 (2020) → ~2029 (2021) → ~2027 (2022) → ~2027 (2023) → ~2027 (2024) → ~2028 (2025) → 2030 (2026). Eli's line (blue): starts 2021 at 2060 → 2050 (2022) → 2035 (2024) → 2032 (2025) → 2031 (2025) → 2035 (2026).]
Quoted/embedded own tweet:
Eli Lifland @eli_lifland · 22h
When we published AI 2027, we thought 2027 was one of the most likely years AGI would arrive. But it was not our **median** forecast, those ranged among authors from 2028-2035. Now our medians have moved back a bit, but our most likely year is still ~2028....
7:23 AM · Nov 22, 2025 · 36.5K Views
23 replies, 26 reposts, 241 likes, 55 bookmarks
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
Eli Lifland (AI 2027 co-author) publishing a chart of how his and Daniel Kokotajlo's median AGI-arrival-year forecasts have shifted over time (2018-2026), clarifying that AI 2027's headline year was not their median forecast. Directly relevant to Nathan's tracking of empirical singularity/AGI timeline forecasts noted elsewhere in the archive (Davidson/Houlden, METR).
agi timelinesai 2027forecastingeli liflanddaniel kokotajlosingularityai safety