ajeya cotra

Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸🚀 (verified) @peterwildeford - If you continue the METR trend, you see ~100h models by end of the year! (~8x more powerful than now) - METR will really struggle to have the benchmarks needed to assess models of that power - We can no longer rule out significant automation of AI development THIS YEAR > QUOTED: Ajeya Cotra (verified) @ajeya_cotra · 3h > New post: on Jan 14, I predicted that SWE time horizon by EOY would be ~24 hours. Now I think it'll be >100 hours, and maybe unbounded. For the first time, I don't see solid evidence against AI R&D automation *this year.* Link below. > [Embedded text card:] 50% METR time horizon: 24 hours. Currently, Claude Opus 4.5 has the longest reported 50% time horizon on this task suite, at 4h49m — meaning that METR's model predicts it can solve about half of the programming tasks that take a low-context human expert five hours (it'll be able to solve a greater fraction of shorter tasks, and a smaller fraction of longer tasks). My median for the longest 50% time horizon reported as of Dec 31, 2026 is 24 hours (20th percentile 15 hours, 80th percentile is that it's too long for METR to accurately bound in practice but probably around 40 hours in "reality"). 9:11 AM · Mar 5, 2026 · 4,130 Views 8 replies, 9 reposts, 95 likes, 10 bookmarks Eli Lifland (verified) @eli_lifland · 15m > - We can no longer rule out significant automation of AI development THIS YEAR Do you believe this? Previously you've predicted 2% on AGI by end of 2027