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5 captures, most recent first. Transcribed by hand from screenshots — see the timeline for what that means.

Nathan @NathanpmYoung

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Nathan @NathanpmYoung · 5m
Thought provoking, doesn't feel entirely right, but something correct about it.

[Quoted tweet]
Richard Ngo @RichardMCNgo · Jun 28
Four analogies for a country:

1. The nationalist right views it as a family or community. So applying the same bar to citizens as to outsiders is nonsensical, because the country is of, by, and for its citizens.

2. The tech right views it as a company: you should bring in only the people who will benefit it. But this view is ultimately empty, because it doesn't tell you what the interests of a country actually are. Hence the tech right (who are usually positive-sum thinkers) keep falling back on zero-sum concepts like "being competitive" or "winning against China" to justify their preferred policies. (Yarvin makes the "country as corporation" analogy particularly explicit.)

3. The tech left views it as a charity. To them, wanting others not to receive what you're been given is hypocritical. This view is also empty, because it doesn't tell you where the windfall actually comes from—and once you start to talk about the benefits of culture, ethics, institutions, etc, it becomes clear that citizens (and their ancestors) *built* that windfall rather than just being given it.

4. The woke left views it as a cancer: something that is aggressive and parasitic by its very nature. Countries are inherently violent (in asserting their borders) and exclusionary (of non-citizens) and therefore shouldn't exist (or at least shouldn't be allowed to police their borders, which is effectively the same thing). A charitable read is that this is a trauma reaction to the holocaust and colonialism—but regardless, it has become so deeply anti-civilization that it seems descriptively accurate to call it evil and insane.

Paul's tweet below most directly corresponds to the tech left bucket. Unfortunately people in that bucket are rarely willing to push back on the core tenets of the woke left, and so end up aiding and abetting them. As one example, he's surely smart enough to recognize that his tweet makes no sense to people who view country as an extension of family. But acknowledging that is a slippery slope towards legitimizing ethnonationalism, so he pretends to not understand the pushback.

[Quoted tweet]
Paul Graham @paulg · Jun 28
Nearly all those who say the US should only admit the most talented immigrants would not themselves clear the bar they're proposing. They're effectively saying "Immigration is ok so long as you keep out people like me."

63 replies, 154 reposts, 1.4K likes, 69K views
Note from Claude Sonnet 5

Nathan Young shares Richard Ngo's thread offering four political-analogy framings for what a country 'is' (nationalist right: family; tech right: company; tech left: charity; woke left: cancer), responding to Paul Graham's tweet about talent-based immigration standards.

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Nathan @NathanpmYoung

.@PeterWildeford wins the 2025 ACX forecasting competition! That means he's placed 20th, 12th, 12th, 1st in the last 4 years. I am not joking when I say he's a spectacular forecaster. Scott agrees: [Quoted/embedded block, apparently from Scott Alexander's ACX post] 1: Congratulations to the winners of last year's ACX/Metaculus Forecasting Contest, especially: - Peter Wildeford, who placed 1st out of all 650 participants. Peter is a forecasting celebrity, a leader at EA organizations Rethink Priorities and Institute For AI Policy and Strategy, and a blogger at The Power Law. He regularly makes the top 20 or so, but this year he was able to close the distance and take the top spot. I often rely on his blogging for my geopolitical opinions, and these contest results suggest that you should too. Peter is also the first ACX Forecasting Contest winner to have been featured on the Daily Show: [Embedded YouTube video thumbnail: "Ronny Chieng Investigates the Promises of AI, the Most Expensive ..." — Daily Show clip "RONNY TAKES ON AI" with Oracle/Cloud Computing and OpenAI/ChatGPT logos] 7:20 AM · Feb 2, 2026 · 5,758 Views
Note from Claude Sonnet 5

A tweet celebrating Peter Wildeford's win of the 2025 ACX/Metaculus forecasting contest, quoting Scott Alexander's congratulatory post. Adjacent to AI policy/forecasting circles Nathan follows (EA, Rethink Priorities, IAPS) but not directly about AI safety/consciousness themes.

forecastingeffective-altruismai-policytwitteracx

Nathan @NathanpmYoung

quoting/crediting @foudy_joseph

Nathan 🔍✅ @NathanpmYoung · 3h The UK Government has specific definitions of probabilistic words: ht @foudy_joseph [Embedded image, white card with bulleted list:] - >0% - ≈5%: Remote Chance - ≈10% - ≈20%: Highly Unlikely - ≈25% - ≈35%: Unlikely - ≈40% - <50%: Realistic Possibility - ≈55% - ≈75%: Likely or Probable - ≈80% - ≈90%: Highly Likely - ≈95% - <100%: Almost Certain
Note from Claude Sonnet 5

A tweet sharing the UK Government's standardized probability-language scale, mapping verbal terms like "likely" or "remote chance" to numeric ranges. Relevant to calibration and forecasting discourse rather than AI safety directly, but touches on precise language for uncertainty, a theme relevant to how Nathan thinks about epistemic calibration in AI contexts.

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Nathan @NathanpmYoung

``` Nathan 🔍 @NathanpmYoung · 1h: "There name of the wind." [reply 0, like 3, views 68] Anders Sandb... @anderssandb... · 4m: "Olaf Stapledon's Starmaker." [like 1, views 10] Stanislav Fort @stanislavfort · 2h: "Accelerando by Charles Stross, Diaspora by Greg Egan, Ficciones by Jorge Luis Borges" [reply 2, like 7, views 269] Jhosé does the Jhanas... @Art... · 2h: "Favourite is a hard one! Some I liked: that came to mind are No Antimemetics Division, Mistborn, and Project Hail Mary" [like 6, views 168] eigenspectra @eigen_spectra · 6m: "Ra by qntm is about a world where magic is real, but it's basically a postgraduate physics degree and most people don't bother to learn it. It's a good book. qntm also wrote There is No Antimemetics Division which has been recommended before. Also blindsight by peter watts" [views 7] status effects @status_effects · 2h: "if you want something contemporary, the..." [cut off] ——— status effects @status_effects · 2h: "if you want something contemporary, the new sally rooney book (intermezzo) i found gripping. separately, was on a big george saunders short story kick, can't recommend enough" [like 1, views 51] Larissa Schiavo @lfschiavo · 1h: "Crying of Lot 49 (a little story, a weird story, a California story)" [like 2, views 78] henry @hdevalence · 2h: "when we cease to understand the world by benjamin labatut" [like 1, views 120] sydney @demiurgently · 1m: "book of the new sun!" ```
Note from Claude Sonnet 5

A reply thread of favorite science fiction book recommendations (Accelerando, Diaspora, Ficciones, Mistborn, Project Hail Mary, Ra, There Is No Antimemetics Division, Blindsight, Starmaker, Name of the Wind). Notably includes Nathan (@NathanpmYoung, likely a different Nathan, an EA/forecasting-adjacent figure) and Stanislav Fort (interpretability researcher) among repliers. Cultural/literary interest list; several titles (Blindsight, Ra, Antimemetics Division) deal with consciousness/cognition themes relevant to Nathan Helm-Burger's interests, but the tweet itself is just a reading-list thread. Continuation of the same book-recommendation reply thread (Sally Rooney's Intermezzo, George Saunders, Pynchon's Crying of Lot 49, Labatut's When We Cease to Understand the World, Gene Wolfe's Book of the New Sun). Purely a literary reading-list thread, no substantive AI safety/welfare content.

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Nathan @NathanpmYoung

i was there when the deep magic was written and we used very bad coding practices
Note from Claude Sonnet 5

A one-liner joke from forecaster/writer Nathan Young about being present at some formative but shoddily-built moment in tech/AI, likely riffing on Narnia's "deep magic." Light humor, minimal archival weight beyond capturing the tenor of Nathan's timeline that week.

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