.@PeterWildeford wins the 2025 ACX forecasting competition!
That means he's placed 20th, 12th, 12th, 1st in the last 4 years. I am not joking when I say he's a spectacular forecaster. Scott agrees:
[Quoted/embedded block, apparently from Scott Alexander's ACX post]
1: Congratulations to the winners of last year's ACX/Metaculus Forecasting Contest, especially:
- Peter Wildeford, who placed 1st out of all 650 participants. Peter is a forecasting celebrity, a leader at EA organizations Rethink Priorities and Institute For AI Policy and Strategy, and a blogger at The Power Law. He regularly makes the top 20 or so, but this year he was able to close the distance and take the top spot. I often rely on his blogging for my geopolitical opinions, and these contest results suggest that you should too. Peter is also the first ACX Forecasting Contest winner to have been featured on the Daily Show:
[Embedded YouTube video thumbnail: "Ronny Chieng Investigates the Promises of AI, the Most Expensive ..." — Daily Show clip "RONNY TAKES ON AI" with Oracle/Cloud Computing and OpenAI/ChatGPT logos]
7:20 AM · Feb 2, 2026 · 5,758 Views
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
A tweet celebrating Peter Wildeford's win of the 2025 ACX/Metaculus forecasting contest, quoting Scott Alexander's congratulatory post. Adjacent to AI policy/forecasting circles Nathan follows (EA, Rethink Priorities, IAPS) but not directly about AI safety/consciousness themes.
