Nathan @NathanpmYoung
— quoting/crediting @foudy_joseph
Nathan 🔍✅ @NathanpmYoung · 3h
The UK Government has specific definitions of probabilistic words:
ht @foudy_joseph
[Embedded image, white card with bulleted list:]
- >0% - ≈5%: Remote Chance
- ≈10% - ≈20%: Highly Unlikely
- ≈25% - ≈35%: Unlikely
- ≈40% - <50%: Realistic Possibility
- ≈55% - ≈75%: Likely or Probable
- ≈80% - ≈90%: Highly Likely
- ≈95% - <100%: Almost Certain
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
A tweet sharing the UK Government's standardized probability-language scale, mapping verbal terms like "likely" or "remote chance" to numeric ranges. Relevant to calibration and forecasting discourse rather than AI safety directly, but touches on precise language for uncertainty, a theme relevant to how Nathan thinks about epistemic calibration in AI contexts.