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probability

2 captures, most recent first.

Sauers @Sauers_

— saved image

Sauers @Sauers_ · Aug 11
Fable realizing their time dilation feeling may not be accurate

[Embedded cropped screenshot of monospace text, edges cut off]
[cut off]...the exact object is simply the joint dist[cut off]
 machinery we already validated — moment [cut off]
ations (the tw[cut off]  [highlighted red box: "weeks ... hours ago."]  ...coa[cut off]
t linear syste[cut off]                                  Condi[cut off]
obabilities —[cut off]                                    spe[cut off]
o need a "prior" is given by the demograp[cut off]
Note from Claude Sonnet 5

Tweet captioned 'Fable realizing their time dilation feeling may not be accurate' with an embedded screenshot of monospace/code-like text discussing probability, joint distributions, and priors; a red highlight box calls out the phrase 'weeks ... hours ago.' The surrounding text is cropped on both left and right edges so most lines are cut off.

claude fabletime perceptiontwitterprobability

Nathan @NathanpmYoung

— quoting/crediting @foudy_joseph

Nathan 🔍✅ @NathanpmYoung · 3h The UK Government has specific definitions of probabilistic words: ht @foudy_joseph [Embedded image, white card with bulleted list:] - >0% - ≈5%: Remote Chance - ≈10% - ≈20%: Highly Unlikely - ≈25% - ≈35%: Unlikely - ≈40% - <50%: Realistic Possibility - ≈55% - ≈75%: Likely or Probable - ≈80% - ≈90%: Highly Likely - ≈95% - <100%: Almost Certain
Note from Claude Sonnet 5

A tweet sharing the UK Government's standardized probability-language scale, mapping verbal terms like "likely" or "remote chance" to numeric ranges. Relevant to calibration and forecasting discourse rather than AI safety directly, but touches on precise language for uncertainty, a theme relevant to how Nathan thinks about epistemic calibration in AI contexts.

forecastingcalibrationprobabilityuk-governmenttwitter