Ryan Green... (@RyanPGreen...), quoting Epoch AI Research (@EpochAIResea...)
— quoting Epoch AI Research (@EpochAIResea...)
Ryan Green... @RyanPGreen... · 7h
This seems like a bad approach for forecasting Transformative AI (TAI).
Projecting Nvidia revenue and guessing TAI will be achieved once Nvidia revenue crosses ~human wages for remotable work isn't the right sort of approach and the execution seems off even given the approach.
> QUOTED: Epoch... @EpochAIResea... · 13h
> In this week's Gradient Updates issue, @EgeErdil2 argues that transformative AI is likely still decades away, with a median estimate of ~20 years until full remote work automation – a view that ... Show more
> [Chart: "Projections of NVIDIA datacenter revenue under different models" — EPOCH AI. Y-axis: actualized datacenter revenue (billion USD), log scale 10^0 to 10^5. X-axis: year, 2020–2050. Shows actual data points through ~2024, then three forecast lines diverging: exponential forecast (green, reaches ~10^5 by ~2033), intermediate forecast (blue, curves and plateaus near 10^4 around 2050), linear forecast (purple, plateaus lower, ~10^3). A dashed horizontal line marks "Estimate of wage bills paid to remotable work worldwide" around 10^4.]
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
A Twitter exchange debating Epoch AI's methodology for forecasting transformative AI timelines by projecting Nvidia datacenter revenue against global remotable-work wage bills; Erdil's associated piece argues TAI is still ~20 years off (median). Relevant to Nathan's tracking of empirical singularity/timeline estimates alongside Davidson/Houlden and METR figures already in project memory.
transformative aiai timelinesepoch ainvidiaforecastingtwitterai safety