bayes @bayeslord
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bayes ✓ @bayeslord · 1h I think people are going to be blindsided by algorithmic progress. The entire world, markets, governments, militaries, companies, people, etc. are all trying to make sense of AI and its impact in terms of the recent past's production efficiencies and regularities, and how things appear to be going. Even several of the purportedly "RSI"pilled neolabs seem to think this will be business as usual but with Agent in a loop. No. My guess is there are many algorithmic OOMs left to go in the production of intelligence, maybe (maybe) up to ten, with four to seven seeming more likely. Going beyond even ten is possible in principle, but it strains hard against what I suspect the universe will actually let us do. Implausible but not impossible. If this is true then things aren't actually going as they appear to be going and a big jump is coming. Anything along these lines happening would make things, far weirder than almost anyone seems to be pricing in.
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
Screenshot of an X post by @bayeslord arguing that the world is extrapolating AI progress from recent production efficiencies and will be blindsided, because there may be four to seven (up to ten) algorithmic orders of magnitude left in the production of intelligence — implying a discontinuous jump nobody is pricing in.
