3 captures, most recent first. Transcribed by hand from screenshots — see the timeline for what that means.
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will brown (verified) @willcb · 19h who cares if it's technically a sigmoid, the plateau is like 3 or 4 OOMs away. also we're 10x-ing every year, superintelligence by 2030 easily
Tweet by @willcb arguing that whether AI progress is technically a sigmoid is irrelevant because the plateau is roughly 3 or 4 orders of magnitude away, claiming 10x growth per year and superintelligence by 2030.
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will brown @willcb · 4h it’s a bit silly in my mind to ask “is astra or fable better” they’re wildly different models that work much better together let them talk with each other directly. they can quickly realize each other’s strengths + figure out how to best collaborate
Short X post by will brown (@willcb), verified account, saying it is silly to ask whether Astra or Fable is better because they are very different models that work much better together, and suggesting they be let to talk directly to each other.
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norvid_studies reposted will brown @willcb btw it is feasible and likely optimal to massively scale agent-written code while keeping it fully human-legible and allowing humans to validate it behaves as intended with quick spot-checks [embedded Wikipedia screenshot: "PCP theorem" (6 languages; Article, Talk, Read, Edit, View history). From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. Not to be confused with Post correspondence problem. In computational complexity theory, the PCP theorem (also known as the PCP characterization theorem) states that every decision problem in the NP complexity class has probabilistically checkable proofs (proofs that can be checked by a randomized algorithm) of constant query complexity and logarithmic randomness complexity (uses a logarithmic number of random bits). The PCP theorem says that for some universal constant K, for every n, any mathematical proof for a statement of length n can be rewritten as a different proof of length poly(n) that is formally verifiable with 99% accuracy by a randomized algorithm that inspects only K letters of that proof.] 2:41 PM · Sep 5, 2026 · 8,149 Views 12 replies, 6 reposts, 151 likes, 61 bookmarks Relevant will brown @willcb · 8h basically we invented average-case NP oracles, and governance mandates that we become PCP checkers [1 reply, 22 likes, 2.1K views] will brown @willcb · 5h well, PCP vibecheckers really [7 likes, 917 views] oso (sf 9/14-9/18) @osoleve · 7h many are saying this [embedded card, partly obscured by a floating button and the bottom nav bar: "The Optimization Thesis" / "The Fold optimizes for cognitive efficiency of representation — abstractions that make problem spaces tractable for bounded reasoners." / "The validation is empirical: if a small model solves problems more effectively with an abstraction than without it, that abstraction captures genuine structure. If not, the abstraction is wrong, no matter how elegant it looks." / "Speed optimizations happen underneath; semantics stay stable above. What something computes never changes. How fast it computes can always improve."]
Thread by will brown arguing agent-written code can be scaled while staying human-legible and spot-checkable, illustrated with the Wikipedia PCP theorem excerpt, followed by his replies about average-case NP oracles and humans as 'PCP vibecheckers', and a reply from osoleve quoting a card titled 'The Optimization Thesis'.
pcp theoremagent-written codeverificationhuman oversightcomplexity theory