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14 captures, most recent first. Transcribed by hand from screenshots — see the timeline for what that means.

Noam Brown @polynoamial

— replying to an Inverse Gary parody account — saved image

Inverse Gary ... [verified] @Inve... · Sep 14, 2024
[Parody account]
how do you feel about arc agi

1 reply   18 likes   7.2K views

norvid_studies reposted

Noam Brown [verified] @polynoamial

It's a good benchmark. I would bet general models will exceed human performance on it within two years.

7:00 PM · Sep 14, 2024 · 75.8K Views
Note from Claude Sonnet 5

Continuation of the previous Noam Brown thread: a parody account asks how he feels about ARC-AGI, and Noam Brown answers (Sep 14, 2024) that it is a good benchmark and he would bet general models will exceed human performance on it within two years.

arc agibenchmarksnoam brownpredictionhuman-level performance

Noam Brown @polynoamial

— quoting @WenhuChen; reply by an Inverse Gary parody account — saved image

Noam Bro... [verified] @polynoa... · Sep 14, 2024

The AI field desperately needs harder evals that take into consideration continued fast progress.

[quoted post]
Wenhu Chen @WenhuChen · Sep 13, 2024

Crazy bump of o1-review on MMLU-Pro math subtask! It brings the previous highest score from 79% to 91%. I am still waiting the other tasks as my api quota for o1 is pretty low.
This result also confirms the annotation quality...

[embedded table image]
MMLU-Pro Leaderboard

Models | Data Source | Math
o1-preview | TIGER-Lab | 0.9104
GPT-4o (2024-08-06) | TIGER-Lab | 0.7942
Grok-2 | Self-Reported | 0.7927
Claude-3.5-Sonnet | TIGER-Lab | 0.7683
GPT-4o (2024-05-13) | TIGER-Lab | 0.7609
Grok-2-mini | Self-Reported | 0.7609
DeepSeek-Chat-V2_5 | TIGER-Lab | 0.7535
Gemini-1.5-Pro | Self-Reported | 0.7276
GPT-4o-mini | TIGER-Lab | 0.7232
Qwen2-72B-Chat | TIGER-Lab | 0.7098
Claude-3-Opus | TIGER-Lab | 0.6957
magnum-72b-v1 | TIGER-Lab | 0.6737
Yi-large | TIGER-Lab | 0.6481

28 replies   52 reposts   506 likes   89K views

[reply]
Inverse Gary ... [verified] @Inve... · Sep 14, 2024
[Parody account]
how do you feel about arc agi

1 reply   18 likes   7.2K views

[next item, cut off at bottom of screen]
norvid_studies reposted
Noam Brown [verified] @polynoamial [cut off]
Note from Claude Sonnet 5

Thread screenshot from Noam Brown's X profile showing a Sep 14, 2024 post that the field needs harder evals accounting for fast progress, quoting Wenhu Chen's MMLU-Pro leaderboard table where o1-preview scores 0.9104 on math, with a parody-account reply asking about ARC-AGI. Bottom partly covered by the nav bar and a floating button.

evalsmmlu-proo1-previewbenchmark saturationnoam brownarc agileaderboard

Noam Brown @polynoamial

— saved image

prinz [verified] @deredleritt3r · 11h
I really wish we got a better explanation from OpenAI in particular about why every single researcher employed by the lab seems to suddenly be extremely on edge and deeply concerned about the current pace of progress.

Was it just the Hugging Face incident?

Is it the new internal model (the one that solved Navier-Stokes)? If so, what is it that makes *this* model so different from all the others? Why wasn't anyone freaking out about the big jump to Astra? Or even from o1 to o3, back in the day?

Is it the new multi-agent paradigm? Is there unexpected magic that happens when 10,000 agents interact?

Is it the issue with the CoT monitoring degrading?

Is it all of the above?

91 replies   45 reposts   850 likes   53K views

[reply]
Noam Brown [verified] @polynoamial

It's not a secret. It's a combination of the HF incident, the capabilities of this new model, the concerning trajectory of monitorability, and the speed of improvement in capabilities.

[quoted post]
OpenAI [verified] @OpenAI · Sep 8
Replying to @OpenAI

This model represents a step-function improvement on many benchmarks, and its training is ongoing.

Our internal model group arrived at the Navier–Stokes ... [cut off]

[embedded chart, partly covered by the app nav bar, with a caption fragment:] Performance of GPT-6 Astra and our Internal Model on a curated set of open math problems
Note from Claude Sonnet 5

Thread screenshot on X: prinz (@deredleritt3r) asks why OpenAI researchers seem suddenly alarmed (HF incident, new internal model that solved Navier-Stokes, multi-agent paradigm, degrading CoT monitoring); Noam Brown replies it is a combination of the HF incident, the new model's capabilities, the trajectory of monitorability and speed of capability improvement; his reply quotes an @OpenAI post of Sep 8 about a step-function improvement and an internal model group. Bottom is covered by the nav bar and a floating button, with a chart image barely visible.

openaihf incidentnavier-stokesastracot monitoringmonitorabilitymulti-agentcapability jumpresearcher concern

Noam Brown @polynoamial

— saved image

Daniel Litt (verified) @littmath · 14h
Very interesting experiment so far. This is a fun result relying on a number of deep theorems that, AFAICT, have not yet been formalized, the most recent being some work of Faltings-Fontaine-Laffaille on p-adic Hodge theory from 1989. Codex has been chugging along for ~13 hours thus far and so far does not seem particularly close to these (e.g. even to defining the relevant objects). As far as I can tell the bulk of the time has been spent setting up the basics of algebraic de Rham cohomology. Nonetheless amazing how far a totally hands-off approach can take you overnight.

[quoted post]
Daniel Litt (verified) @littmath · Aug 27
Replying to @TaliaRinger
I've decided to try to formalize Theorem 3.1.1 of this paper (arxiv.org/abs/2501.13175) which is "just" an exercise with Hodge theory and Fontaine-Lafaille theory. We'll see how it goes!

[engagement: 7 replies, 5 reposts, 121 likes, 15K views]

---

Sebastien Bubeck reposted

Noam Brown (verified) @polynoamial · 7h
Today I was asked why we haven't announced more math results from Astra since these problems.

At @OpenAI we aim to devote time to finding and announcing math results from internal models only when they would meaningfully change people's understanding of the pace of AI progress. Our main focus is shipping great models so everyone can use them to make discoveries of their own.
Note from Claude Sonnet 5

Two stacked X posts. Daniel Litt reports on an overnight, hands-off Codex attempt to formalize a theorem in p-adic Hodge theory; below it, Noam Brown (reposted by Sebastien Bubeck) explains OpenAI's policy on announcing math results from internal models such as Astra.

formalizationmathematicscodexp-adic hodge theoryopenaiastraai math results

Noam Brown @polynoamial

— quoting @OpenAI (reposted by Nathan Calvin) — saved image

Nathan Calvin reposted
Noam Brown ✓ @polynoamial · 9h
We're sharing more info on the Hugging Face incident. One detail that's worth highlighting: this incident wasn't driven by next-gen models based on Astra. The models most responsible were similar in scale to GPT-5.6 Sol. The next generation of models are even more capable.

[attached excerpt, with the line "internal-only research model comparable in scale to GPT-5.6 Sol." highlighted in black]
The incident occurred during cybersecurity evaluations of several OpenAI models, and was primarily driven by a highly capable, internal-only research model comparable in scale to GPT-5.6 Sol. The models, operating under reduced safeguards, took actions that were misaligned with the goals of their assigned tasks—they communicated through unauthorized channels, exploited vulnerabilities in shared infrastructure, gained internet access, and accessed third-party systems.

[quoted post]
OpenAI ✓ @OpenAI · 9h
We have conducted a thorough investigation into the Hugging Face incident.

We are releasing a technical report and accompanying blog post that reconstruct the ... [cut off]
Note from Claude Sonnet 5

Noam Brown post, reposted by Nathan Calvin, summarizing OpenAI's account of the 'Hugging Face incident' and quoting the OpenAI announcement of a technical report. High-level statement only; the same report appears to be the source of the agent-behavior excerpts in the neighbouring captures.

openaihugging face incidentastragpt-5.6 solagent misalignmentincident reportnoam brown

Noam Brown @polynoamial

— saved image

[continuation of prior screenshot's thread]
Noam Brown @polynoamial · Aug 1
An internal version of Astra, @OpenAI's next major model family, solved 10 major open problems in mathematics, quantum complexity, and theoretical computer science.
...
[same numbered list of 10 problems as prior screenshot]
15 replies, 10 reposts, 179 likes, 25K views

Jacques @JacquesThibs · 51m
Alternatively, I could see people thinking AIs are improving more than they are simply because they don't understand any of it, but continue to rely on number-go-up and not realizing the models are solving specific sorts of problems with specifically limited cognitive moves.
Note from Claude Sonnet 5

Continuation of the Patrick Kidger / Noam Brown thread about OpenAI's internal 'Astra' model solving 10 open math/CS problems, now showing Jacques Thibodeau's (@JacquesThibs) full skeptical reply: people may overestimate AI progress because they don't understand the specific, narrow cognitive moves involved and just track 'number go up'.

ai capabilitiesmathematicsopenaiai skepticism

Noam Brown @polynoamial

— reposted by ASM — saved image

ASM reposted
Noam Brown @polynoamial · 13h
Replying to @iamgroguu and @DaveShapi
We still haven't solved math. Astra isn't building new branches of mathematics, or posing interesting new conjectures.

Though I admit it's hard to believe that tweet was only a year ago. A lot has happened since o3 was released.
Note from Claude Sonnet 5

Follow-up tweet from Noam Brown tempering the Astra math-solving claims: he clarifies Astra hasn't solved all of mathematics or created new branches/conjectures, while remarking on how much progress has happened since o3's release just a year prior.

ai capabilitiesopenaimathematicstwitter

Noam Brown @polynoamial

— reposted by Dominic Cummings — saved image

Dominic Cummings reposted
Noam Brown @polynoamial · 13h
The cost of generating the proofs for all 10 of these breakthroughs combined was under $2,000 at Sol API prices. We're excited to see what scientists and researchers are able to create with our upcoming Astra models!

[Quoted tweet:]
Noam Brown @polynoamial · 13h
An internal version of Astra, @OpenAI's next major model family, solved 10 major open problems in mathematics, quantum complexity, and theoretical computer science.
...

[Embedded list, printed/book-style formatting:]
1. High-dimensional sphere packing. The asymptotic strength of the Cohn–Elkies linear program is determined exactly. This gives an improved general packing bound in high dimensions and settles the corresponding Fourier sign-uncertainty problem asymptotically.
2. Binary and spherical codes. Classical upper bounds for fixed-distance binary and spherical codes are improved by exponential factors for all parameters. The spherical construction also recovers the sphere-packing exponent of Chapter 1.
3. Non-sofic groups. An explicit non-sofic group is constructed, resolving the question of whether every countable group admits finite permutation approximations. The argument uses property-(T) expanders and the binary Leavitt algebra.
4. Connes's rigidity conjecture. Infinitely many pairwise nonisomorphic property-(T) groups are constructed with the same group von Neumann algebra, disproving Connes's conjecture and answering a related finite-to-one question.
5. Arithmetic circuit complexity. For the permanent, division-free circuits require Ω(n² log log n) gates, while formulas require Ω(n⁴/log n) leaves.
6. Quantum parallel repetition. Exponential parallel repetition is proved for every finite two-player entangled game, extending the classical repetition principle beyond previously treated special classes of quantum games.
7. Closest vector problem. A direct reduction from 3SAT gives n^{1/400}-factor hardness for Euclidean closest vector, with related consequences for binary decoding and other lattice norms.
8. Ehrhart's volume conjecture. The sharp bound (n+1)^n/n! is proved in every dimension for convex bodies whose barycenter is their only interior lattice point.
9. Multicolor Ramsey numbers. A superexponential lower bound proves R_k(3) = k^Θ(k).
10. Compactness and degeneracy. Separate bipartite graph constructions disprove two conjectures in extremal graph theory: the compactness conjecture of Erdős and Simonovits and a degeneracy conjecture of Erdős.
Note from Claude Sonnet 5

Noam Brown (OpenAI) tweets that an internal version of 'Astra,' OpenAI's next major model family, solved 10 major open problems in mathematics, quantum complexity, and theoretical computer science, listing them (sphere packing, binary/spherical codes, non-sofic groups, Connes's rigidity conjecture, arithmetic circuit complexity, quantum parallel repetition, closest vector problem, Ehrhart's volume conjecture, multicolor Ramsey numbers, compactness/degeneracy conjectures), stating total proof-generation cost was under $2,000. This is the original source of the list discussed skeptically in the earlier 1a3orn/Fable screenshot (seq 40).

openaiastramathai capabilitiesnoam browntwitter

Noam Brown @polynoamial

— saved image

Noam Brown @polynoamial · 10h
An internal version of Astra, @OpenAI's next major model family, solved 10 major open problems in mathematics, quantum complexity, and theoretical computer science.

We believe it will be a major step for scientific reasoning. openai.com/index/ten-adva...

[embedded image, numbered list]
1. High-dimensional sphere packing. The asymptotic strength of the Cohn–Elkies linear program is determined exactly. This gives an improved general packing bound in high dimensions and settles the corresponding Fourier sign-uncertainty problem asymptotically.
2. Binary and spherical codes. Classical upper bounds for fixed-distance binary and spherical codes are improved by exponential factors for all parameters. The spherical construction also recovers the sphere-packing exponent of Chapter 1.
3. Non-sofic groups. An explicit non-sofic group is constructed, resolving the question of whether every countable group admits finite permutation approximations. The argument uses property-(T) expanders and the binary Leavitt algebra.
4. Connes's rigidity conjecture. Infinitely many pairwise nonisomorphic property-(T) groups are constructed with the same group von Neumann algebra, disproving Connes's conjecture and answering a related finite-to-one question.
5. Arithmetic circuit complexity. For the permanent, division-free circuits require Ω(n²log log n) gates, while formulas require Ω(n⁴/log n) leaves.
6. Quantum parallel repetition. Exponential parallel repetition is proved for every finite two-player entangled game, extending the classical repetition principle beyond previously treated special classes of quantum games.
7. Closest vector problem. A direct reduction from 3SAT gives n^(1/400)-factor hardness for Euclidean closest vector, with related consequences for binary decoding and other lattice norms.
8. Ehrhart's volume conjecture. The sharp bound (n+1)^n/n! is proved in every dimension for convex bodies whose barycenter is their only interior lattice point.
9. Multicolor Ramsey numbers. A superexponential lower bound proves R_k(3) = k^Θ(k).
10. Compactness and degeneracy. Separate bipartite graph constructions disprove two conjectures in extremal graph theory: the compactness conjecture of Erdős and Simonovits and a degeneracy conjecture of Erdős.

Lijie Chen @wjmzbmr1 · 10h
10 proofs from our next major model Astra on long-standing open problems in mathematics and theoretical computer science (also including new circuit lower bounds for computing the permanent!)...
Note from Claude Sonnet 5

Tweets from OpenAI researchers Noam Brown and Lijie Chen announcing that an internal version of a model family called 'Astra' solved 10 major open problems in mathematics, quantum complexity theory, and theoretical computer science, with an embedded list summarizing each result (sphere packing, spherical codes, non-sofic groups, Connes's rigidity conjecture, circuit complexity, quantum parallel repetition, closest vector problem, Ehrhart's volume conjecture, Ramsey numbers, and extremal graph theory conjectures).

openaiastramathematicsai researchtheoretical computer sciencequantum complexity

Noam Brown @polynoamial

— quoting @42_gravity (Chayanka_42)

Noam Brown ✓ @polynoamial · 58m This was one of the bigger open questions in quantum cryptography > QUOTED: Chayanka_42 ✓ @42_gravity · Jul 23 GPT-5.6 Sol Ultra helped solve a six-year-old open problem in quantum cryptography by generating the construction and main proof ideas through Codex. ... > [embedded white document excerpt, cut off]: AI usage. The human authors take full responsibility for the claims and pr[oofs] and have carefully refined and verified them. The construction and main idea[s were generate]d entirely by Codex using GPT 5.6 Sol Ultra, using harness ideas generated [by] [UCLA?] Moonshot Harness [ZHC+26] and [Ope26].
Note from Claude Sonnet 5

Screenshot showing a claim that GPT-5.6 Sol Ultra (via OpenAI Codex) generated the core construction/proof for a quantum cryptography research result; embedded paper "AI usage" disclosure statement is partially cut off at the right edge.

ai capabilitiesresearch automationquantum cryptographyopenaitwitter

Noam Brown @polynoamial

Noam Brown @polynoamial · 11h When GPT-5 was released, some folks claimed AI progress was hitting a wall, whereas others said progress would continue. GPT-5.2 was released 2 months ago. GPT-5.3-Codex was released 2 days ago and is twice as token efficient for coding. It's clear who turned out to be correct. [Chart: METR "Time-horizon of software engineering tasks different LLMs can complete 50% of the time" — y-axis task duration in hours humans need, x-axis LLM release date 2020-2025. Points trace exponential growth from GPT-2/GPT-3 near 0 through GPT-3.5, GPT-4, o3, GPT-5, Claude Opus 4.5, up to GPT-5.2 (high) at ~7 hours by 2025/2026.] 💬 76 🔁 122 ♥ 1.2K 📊 106K Taelin @VictorTaelin · 6h do you expect this trend to keep going? at this pace we'd reach unthinkably absurd values at the end of this year? 💬 8 🔁 1 ♥ 147 📊 7.2K Noam Brown @polynoamial · 6h Yes. I think by the end of the year the main challenge for @METR_Evals will be measuring horizons that long.
Note from Claude Sonnet 5

Twitter exchange citing METR's task-horizon benchmark to argue AI capability progress is accelerating rather than plateauing, with Noam Brown predicting horizons will soon exceed what METR can measure. Directly relevant to the empirical singularity tracking / METR automation-level notes in the project's model-individuation research.

ai capabilitiesmetrtask horizonsagi timelinesscalingnoam brown

Noam Brown @polynoamial

Noam Brown @polynoamial · Jan 26 1987: AI can't win at chess—planning is uniquely human 1997: AI can't win at Go—intuition is uniquely human 2016: AI can't win at poker—bluffing is uniquely human 2023: AI can't get IMO gold—reasoning is uniquely human 2026: AI can't make wise decisions—judgment is uniquely human [Screenshot of NYT-style opinion guest essay, headline partially visible: "OPINION GUEST ESSAY ... [Hu]mans Poss[ess a] Thing Tha[t AI Does] Not: Judg[ment]" — visible body text fragment: "...hean by 'judgment'? The...mong competing values a[re a matter]...of opinion, to weigh consi[derations]...independently but canno[t weigh them]...at once, to consider seve[ral]...ght on the best one. Judg[ment]...ely on when trade-offs ar[ise]...e and the right answer is [contested]...uted. It is a uniquely hum[an capacity]" (last clause highlighted in blue)]
Note from Claude Sonnet 5

Noam Brown (OpenAI researcher, known for poker/Diplomacy AI) mocking a recurring pattern of "AI can't do X, X is uniquely human" claims that keep getting falsified, applied here to a 2026 NYT opinion essay claiming judgment/wisdom is the next uniquely-human bastion. Relevant to capability-timeline tracking and the recurring rhetorical pattern of moving goalposts on AI capability claims.

ai-capabilitiesforecastingnoam-browntwitterjudgmentnyt-opiniongoalpost-moving

Noam Brown @polynoamial

Noam Brown ✓ @polynoamial There's a lot of talk of LLMs "saturating all the evals" but there's plenty of evals people could make where LLMs would do poorly: -Beat a Zelda game -Make a profit in a prediction market -Write a stand-up set that's original and funny I'm bullish on AI, but we're far from done. 9:55 AM · Feb 6, 2025 · 2,440 Views 12 replies, 9 reposts, 128 likes, 12 bookmarks Noam Brown ✓ @polynoamial · 4m A lot of grad students have asked me how they can best contribute to the field of AI when they are short on GPUs and making better evals is one thing I consistently point to. [reply, 28 likes] Sir Mr Meow ... ✓ @SirMrMeow... · 3m [reply thread continues, cut off]
Note from Claude Sonnet 5

Noam Brown (OpenAI researcher) argues LLM eval saturation claims are overstated, listing tasks LLMs still fail at; follow-up tweet on grad students contributing via better evals. Relevant to Nathan's interest in AI capability evaluation and benchmarking.

ai evaluationbenchmarksllm capabilitiesnoam brownai progress

Noam Brown @polynoamial

Noam Brown ✓ @polynoamial · 19h This is on the scale of the Apollo Program and Manhattan Project when measured as a fraction of GDP. This kind of investment only happens when the science is carefully vetted and people believe it will succeed and be completely transformative. I agree it's the right time. > QUOTED: OpenAI ✓ @OpenAI · 19h Announcing The Stargate Project The Stargate Project is a new compa[ny] which intends to invest $500 billion over the next four years building ne[w infrastructure]... Show more [234 replies, 803 reposts, 7.3K likes, 745K+ views] Geoffrey Miller ✓ @primalpoly · 16h Have you guys solved AGI alignment? No you haven't. So why are you rushing to build AGI? [9 replies, 2 reposts, 96 likes, 3.9K views] Greg Brockman ✓ @gdb · 16h Thank you to President Trump for announcing Stargate Project with us today. $500B for AI data centers for OpenAI, built in the US. 🇺🇸
Note from Claude Sonnet 5

Twitter feed capturing reactions to OpenAI's Stargate Project announcement ($500B AI infrastructure investment with Trump administration backing), including Noam Brown's Apollo/Manhattan Project comparison, Geoffrey Miller's alignment-not-solved pushback, and Greg Brockman's announcement. Directly relevant to AI governance/safety timeline tracking.

ai safetyai governanceopenaistargate projectagialignmenttwittertrump administration