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prediction markets

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Joshua Achiam @jachiam0

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Lisan al Gaib reposted

Joshua Achiam [verified] @jachiam0 · 3h

The experience of being human: on the day it becomes abundantly clear that all open problems in mathematical theory and physics will be solved in ~2 years tops, 98% of the people paying attention to the situation will be too fixated on the human drama about who should get credit to notice that the world changed under their feet in a permanent and quite astonishing way. I feel a strange mix of pride, annoyance, affection, and fear for us all.

43 replies · 65 reposts · 868 likes · 20K views

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Bogdan Ionut Cirstea reposted

Henry Shevlin [verified] @dioscuri · 1h

As recently as April this year, prediction markets gave AI less than a 40% chance of solving any Millennium Prize Problem before **2030**

[attached image: Manifold market screenshot]
Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?
Alan Turing
94% chance (up 14)
[chart axis: 0%, 50%, 100%; x-axis 2025, April, July, October, 2026, April, July; MANIFOLD watermark]
[buttons: Bet YES, Bet NO]
Note from Claude Sonnet 5

Two stacked dark-mode tweets: Joshua Achiam (@jachiam0) on how people will react when it is clear all open problems in mathematical theory and physics will fall within about two years, and Henry Shevlin (@dioscuri) noting prediction markets gave under 40% in April, with an attached Manifold chart of 'Will AI solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?' now at 94%, rising steeply from about July 2026.

millennium prize problemprediction marketsmanifoldai mathsingularityopen problems