Ryan Greenblatt @RyanGreenblatt
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Ryan Greenblatt @RyanGreenblatt · 15h I've updated towards slightly earlier automation of research engineering (automated coder (AC)) and a somewhat smaller gap between automated coder and full automation of AI R&D. If I were writing this modal scenario today, I would maybe put AC at Feb 2028, AI R&D parity at May 2028, full automation of AI R&D at Nov 2028, and significantly past top-expert-dominating AI by around July 2029 (though wildly, wildly superhuman AI is plausible). I've updated some towards stronger transfer and faster progress this year due to various sources of overhang. [Quoted tweet] Ryan Greenbl... @RyanGreenbl... · Aug 11 My median for full automation of AI R&D is around late 2030/early 2031. But my "modal"/ best guess prediction for this milestone would be significantly earlier (mid 2029). ...
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
Tweet from Ryan Greenblatt updating his AI R&D automation timeline (automated coder Feb 2028, full automation Nov 2028), quoting his own Aug 11 post about median vs modal estimates.