5 captures, most recent first.
FleetingBits @fleetingbits · 2h
the problem with a lot of these predictions is that they were pretty much the same as what you would expect with ai being a transformative technology until you get to loss of control or whatever
like all of paul christiano's predictions here are just consistent with ai being a thing and not being priced in; and i think people that were closer to gpt-3 / ml at the time were better placed to see this
the risk narrative is pretty much separate from the capabilities / economic effect (similar issue with ai 2027)
[quoted tweet]
Dwarkesh Patel @dwarkesh_sp · 13h
.@paulfchristiano has such an crazy good prediction record.
These are some quotes from way back in 2021 during a debate he was having with Eliezer abo...
[quoted article/webpage, white background, serif font]
How to help
ARC is hiring an automation lead and a chief of staff:
• Automation lead. LLMs can increasingly automate ARC's technical work. Right now that means researchers using extensive AI assistance, but we want to hire an engineer and project lead to build better tooling, systematize our AI use, secure model and compute access, and generally make sure we are automating ourselves as quickly as possible. Apply here.
• Chief of staff. We are hiring a chief of staff to work closely with me to manage everything other than research direction as we scale: running our hiring processes, managing our operations lead, building out the non-research parts of the organization, and handling a long tail of tasks that would otherwise fall to me (like communication, funding, and project management). Apply here. [cut off]
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
Tweet from @fleetingbits critiquing Paul Christiano's prediction record as consistent with generic 'AI as transformative technology' framing rather than distinctively prescient about loss-of-control risk, quoting Dwarkesh Patel praising Christiano's 2021 debate quotes with Eliezer Yudkowsky, which links to an ARC (Alignment Research Center) 'How to help' hiring page for an automation lead and chief of staff role.
ai safetypaul christianoarctwitterforecasting
@dwarkesh_sp
.@paulfchristiano has such an crazy good prediction record.
These are some quotes from way back in 2021 during a debate he was having with Eliezer about takeoff speeds:
"So like, I think we are going to have crappy coding assistants, and then slightly less crappy coding assistants, and so on. And they will be improving the speed of coding very significantly before the end times.
"[Before ASI, we'll have] hundreds of billions of dollars of spending at google on automating AI R&D... massive scaleups in semiconductor manufacturing, bidding up prices of inputs crazily... massive speculative rises in AI company valuations financing a significant fraction of GWP into AI R&D (+hardware R&D, +building new clusters) .... largely in hopes of future profit / reinvested AI outputs (that have high market cap), but also revenues are probably in the trillions?"
Honestly, it's pretty scary that people like Paul, who predicted the shape of our currently world so far in advance, think superintelligences taking over and disempowering humanity is eminently plausible.
All this to say, you should consider working with him.
[below, partially visible card: "How to help" / "ARC is hiring an automation lead and a chief of staff:" - cut off]
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
Tweet by @dwarkesh_sp quoting Paul Christiano's 2021 takeoff-speed predictions from his debate with Eliezer Yudkowsky, arguing Christiano's track record makes his p(doom)-relevant views on ASI disempowerment worth taking seriously, and pointing to an ARC hiring link.
ai safetytakeoff speedspaul christianoeliezer yudkowskyarcforecasting
Honestly, it's pretty scary that people like Paul, who predicted the shape of our currently world so far in advance, think superintelligences taking over and disempowering humanity is eminently plausible.
All this to say, you should consider working with him.
How to help
ARC is hiring an automation lead and a chief of staff:
- Automation lead. LLMs can increasingly automate ARC's technical work. Right now that means researchers using extensive AI assistance, but we want to hire an engineer and project lead to build better tooling, systematize our AI use, secure model and compute access, and generally make sure we are automating ourselves as quickly as possible. Apply here.
- Chief of staff. We are hiring a chief of staff to work closely with me to manage everything other than research direction as we scale: running our hiring processes, managing our operations lead, building out the non-research parts of the organization, and handling a long tail of tasks that would otherwise fall to me (like communication, funding, and project management). Apply here.
We'll open another researcher hiring round in the next few months, and if you are interested in getting involved you can express interest here.
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
Continuation/scroll of the same @dwarkesh_sp tweet from the previous screenshot, showing the full 'How to help' card with ARC's job postings for an automation lead and chief of staff.
ai safetyarchiringpaul christiano
MTS @MTSlive · 59m
SITUATION DETECTED: Paul Christiano has resigned as Head of Safety at CAISI, and will return to the Alignment Research Center (ARC) as executive director.
1 reply, 1 repost, 29 likes, 2.3K views
MTS @MTSlive · 7/20/26
SITUATION DETECTED: Chris Fall, the director of CAISI, the government agency that evaluates frontier models, has resigned after just three months in office.
9 replies, 17 reposts, 301 likes, 35K views
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
Two stacked tweets from @MTSlive news account reporting personnel changes at CAISI: Paul Christiano's resignation as Head of Safety to return to ARC, and Chris Fall's earlier resignation as CAISI director after three months.
caisipaul christianoarcai policygovernment
Bogdan Ionut Cirs... @BogdanIonut... · 8h
perhaps another negative update on strongly-centralized AI governance vs. x-risk
[quoted tweet]
🟡🔵 MTS @MTSlive · 17h
SITUATION DETECTED: Paul Christiano has resigned as Head of Safety at CAISI, and will return to the Alignment Research Center (ARC) as executive director.
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
Tweet reporting that Paul Christiano has resigned as Head of Safety at CAISI to return to the Alignment Research Center (ARC) as executive director, with commentary framing it as a negative update for centralized AI governance approaches to x-risk.
ai governancepaul christianocaisiarcx-risktwitter
