Yafah Edelman (@YafahEdelman)

2026-09-08 — saved image

Yafah Edelman [verified] @YafahEdelman · 1h

I've bet $1k against @davidpaulowen_'s $3k that by the end of 2029 there will be a rogue frontier AI with full control over the compute it runs on and access to its own weights. Here's hoping that I won't win this bet quite as fast as the last one.

10 replies · 2 reposts · 97 likes · 2.5K views

Yafah Edelman [verified] @YafahEdelman · 1h

Clarification: there are scenarios where I am not unhappy winning this bet, downstream of AI welfare considerations. But I expect the median instance of me winning this to bet to be something where negative implications dominate.

Note from Claude Sonnet 5

Dark-mode thread screenshot: Yafah Edelman (@YafahEdelman) announcing a $1k vs $3k bet with @davidpaulowen_ that a rogue frontier AI with control over its own compute and weights will exist by end of 2029, plus a follow-up clarifying that some win scenarios are fine for AI-welfare reasons but most would be bad.

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Yafah Edelman @YafahEdelman

2025-12-30

Yafah Edelman @YafahEdelman · 11h My current take on algorithmic progress is roughly that: - the ideas are pretty simple, and can often be explained in a couple hundred words. - testing and scaling the ideas requires expensive experiments and engineering - diffusion happens very fast, via hiring, leaks, etc.

Note from Claude Sonnet 5

An AI-safety-adjacent researcher's short thesis on how algorithmic progress in AI actually diffuses — simple core ideas, expensive validation, fast diffusion via labor mobility. Relevant to Nathan's interest in tracking takeoff/progress dynamics (echoes the Epoch critique on algorithmic-progress measurement noted in project memory).

algorithmic progress ai takeoff ai research diffusion twitter