Adrien Ecoffet @AdrienLE
— quoting Jack Clark (@jackclarkSF); reply from Chris (@chatgpt21)
Adrien Ecoffet (@AdrienLE):
Seems right.
(as a reminder, if you think OpenAI disagrees, our stated estimate is that automated AI research will be developed around March 2028)
> QUOTED: Jack Clark (@jackclarkSF) · May 4
> I've spent the past few weeks reading 100s of public data sources about AI development. I now believe that recursive self-improvement has a 60% chance of happening by the end of 2028. In other words, AI systems might soon be capable of building themselves.
9:02 PM · May 4, 2026 · 36.4K Views
14 replies, 29 reposts, 237 likes, 53 bookmarks
Adrien Ecoffet (@AdrienLE) · May 4:
youtu.be/ngDCxlZcecw?si...
8 likes, 2K views
Chris (@chatgpt21) · May 4:
For clarification we have been debating a little.
Do you mean a system that can act as one researcher or a system that can do 100% of the research end to end
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
Twitter exchange between OpenAI's Adrien Ecoffet and Anthropic's Jack Clark about timelines for recursive AI self-improvement / automated AI R&D (2028 estimates). Directly relevant to Nathan's interest in AI timelines and empirical singularity tracking (cf. memory notes on Davidson/Houlden r-estimates, METR automation figures).
ai timelinesrecursive self-improvementautomated ai researchjack clarkanthropicopenaisingularity