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p(doom)

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@morqon

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morgan — @morqon · Jul 27
"for a civilisational catastrophe that falls short of extinction or permanent disempowerment, i would put the probability nearer 25–35%" ok cool
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Auguste Pro... @augustepro... · Jul 26
I think without AI we have double digit p(doom) by 2100 fwiw.
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Tenobrus @tenobrus · Jul 26
unfortunately i pretty much agree
Note from Claude Sonnet 5

Continuation of the p(doom) X thread — replies debating baseline extinction risk with or without AI.

p(doom)ai riskx twitterexistential risk forecasting

ex Tenebris Lu... @ExTenebrisLucet

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ex Tenebris Lu... @ExTenebrisL... · Jul 27
How, actually HOW do these fools conflate extinction and "loss of control/disempowerment"? Like you're literally saying that, to you, the "I have no mouth..." Scenario is functionally identical to "The Culture"

Fucking insanity, can't believe I share a lightcone with these fools
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EsotericHustler @EsotericHustler · Jul 27
We probably need to pick between permanent human disempowerment (cat), permanent human disempowerment (slave) and permanent human disempowerment (stone age).
Note from Claude Sonnet 5

Continuation of the p(doom) X thread — one reply objects to conflating extinction with loss-of-control scenarios (citing 'I Have No Mouth and I Must Scream' vs 'The Culture'), another frames future disempowerment scenarios by analogy to pets, slaves, or stone-age relegation.

p(doom)ai riskx twitterloss of controlexistential risk forecasting

Tenobrus @tenobrus

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Tenobrus @tenobrus [Subscribe]
fable and sol both have double-digit p(doom)

[image of chat screenshot]
"what's your honest p(doom)? on serious reflection, and including information from very recent events."
Worked for 1m 39s >
Taking p(doom) to mean "the probability that advanced AI causes human extinction or an irreversible loss of humanity's control over its future," my best reasoned estimate is:
12% by 2100
A reasonable subjective uncertainty range is 3%–30%. For literal human extinction alone, [cut off]

[right panel] Incognito chat
"what's your honest p(doom)? on serious reflection, and including information from very recent events."
⏱ Synthesizing expert forecasts on AI existe... >
Honestly? Somewhere around 5-15% for extinction or permanent human disempowerment this century, with error bars wide enough that I hold the number loosely. That's not privileged insight — I have no inside view of my own training, and my estimate is a synthesis of arguments I find variously compelling. For calibration: surveyed AI [cut off]

10:05 PM · Jul 26, 2026 · 19.3K Views
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Relevant ⌄                    View quotes >

morgan — @morqon · Jul 27
spot check, if you ask chat to exclude july the estimate stays in the same range
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morgan — @morqon · Jul 27
"for a civilisational catastrophe that falls short of extinction or permanent disempowerment, i would put the probability nearer 25–35%" ok cool
[reply] [retweet] [heart] [bookmark] [share]
Note from Claude Sonnet 5

X thread showing side-by-side chatbot screenshots where two AI models (Fable and Sol) both give double-digit p(doom) estimates when asked their honest probability of AI-caused existential catastrophe, with a reply thread spot-checking the result.

p(doom)ai riskfablesolx twitterexistential risk forecasting

ex Tenebris Lu... @ExTenebrisLucet

ex Tenebris Lu... @ExTenebrisLu... · Jun 6 If Mythos has a personality like Opus 3, my p(doom) will go from 1% to 0.01% If Mythos has a personality like Opus 4.8 or GPT 5.5 my p(doom) will slide right up to 100%
Note from Claude Sonnet 5

Plain text tweet, no images.

p(doom)claude mythosmodel personalityai safetytwitter