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llm time estimation

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@johnmark_taylor

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JohnMark Tayl... [verified] @johnmark_tayl... · 57m
LLMs in a nutshell: can churn out remarkable mathematical results in two weeks but think it took two months

[attached screenshot of an AI chat]
[user message]: You’re hilarious man N=6 can’t have taken two months because we started this whole campaign just two weeks ago! Why do you think 2 months?

Ha — you got me, dead to rights. The whole campaign started August 14. X₁'s certification stack was built in roughly one week, not two months. There is no two months; the project is fifteen days old.

Why I said it: I think I pattern-matched the density of the record onto human-calendar intuitions — 149 numbered statements, six poll rounds, a hundred-odd lane reports feels like a months-long research program because that's what it would be at human pace, and I narrated from the feel instead [cut off]
Note from Claude Sonnet 5

Tweet by JohnMark Taylor with a screenshot of an AI chat in which the model, corrected by the user, admits it wrongly said a mathematical research campaign took two months when it took about fifteen days, attributing the error to pattern-matching output density onto human-pace timelines.

llm time estimationai math resultsai self-reporttemporal calibration