Joshua Achiam @jachiam0
— quote-tweeting @wojkuli quoting a LinkedIn post by Alexander Gerko — saved image
Joshua Achiam @jachiam0 · 2h This is going to be true for every mathematical and computational field of science in about 2 years (+/- a year). This sounds like a great problem to have except it sucks unbelievably because defense planning depends heavily on people knowing the state of science! [Quoted tweet] Woj Kulikowski @wojkuli · 8h New Javons paradox: we are running out of mathematicians to review progress in maths [Embedded LinkedIn post] Alexander Gerko · 3rd+ CEO at XTX Markets 20h Over the last month I "vibe researched" several PhDs' worth of maths results in and around the field I did my research in 25+ years ago (complete with Lean formalization and passable text). This includes a counterexample to a top-5 major conjecture in the field! I assume any active researcher in the field would have done even better. What does this mean for the bar for a "significant" maths contribution going forward? Clearly you can't just give out PhDs for what I did, so the bar must already be much higher today (even if nothing better than 5.6 shows up), not in some kind of distant and hypothetical future. And if the gap between "5.7" and 5.6 is the same size as the gap between 5.6 and 5.5, we are talking mostly superhuman performance in all aspects of maths. We are going to see 50 years' worth of maths progress in the next 2 years, but there won't be nearly enough human mathematicians around to process and understand all of it, let alone figure out how to apply it all or what new questions to ask. Zefi Hennessy Holland and 1,135 others · 70 comments · 23 reposts 5 2 63 4K Joshua Achiam @jachiam0 · 2h The level of chaos from failing to map the tech tree and its defense consequences will be profound, and if the world is slipping into armed conflict, potentially lethal to many. We have to get better prepared.
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
Thread on AI-accelerated mathematics research: a LinkedIn post from Alexander Gerko (CEO, XTX Markets) claims he 'vibe researched' PhD-level maths results including a counterexample to a major conjecture, arguing 50 years of maths progress will happen in 2 years. Joshua Achiam (OpenAI) quote-tweets warning this trend will hit all computational sciences and poses severe defense-planning risks if the world is heading toward armed conflict.