christian @curious_vii
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christian @curious_vii · 47m If these cyber capabilities are real, there's no way the current administration is not doing everything in their power to acquire unlimited access to whatever the Labs actually have on the frontier to win the current war in Iran, especially given how much is at stake for DT et al. I would go so far as to say that if they DON'T win at this point, it tells us something about limiting factors (that might also prove to modulate economic growth)—they could be, e.g.,: 1. Models still too spiky; 2. Traditional notions of sovereignty are being challenged right now at a much more fundamental level that is being talked about openly; 3. The fixed costs of retooling and reforming organizations with mega-bureaucracies are too great to make changes quickly enough to realize even this kind of tantalizing strategic advantage (in the private sector, this could be read as "enterprise AI is fake, and we're still trying to retrofit electricity to coal factories, while the gains will emerge from net new forms," and extrapolated to exotic 21st c. political economies that are either nascent or don't yet exist).
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
Tweet speculating that if frontier AI cyber capabilities are real, the current US administration would be trying to leverage them for the ongoing war in Iran, and reasoning through possible limiting factors (model unreliability, sovereignty disruption, bureaucratic retooling costs) if such an advantage isn't being realized.