Ethan Mollick @emollick
AI is very vulnerable to The McNamara Fallacy:
Step 1: [Train on] what can be easily measured
Step 2: Disregard that which cannot be measured easily
Step 3: Presume that which cannot be measured easily isn't important
Step 4: Say that which can't be easily measured doesn't exist
[Embedded Wikipedia excerpt]:
The McNamara fallacy (also known as the quantitative fallacy), named for Robert McNamara, the US Secretary of Defense from 1961 to 1968, involves making a decision based solely on quantitative observations (or metrics) and ignoring all others. The reason given is often that these other observations cannot be proven.
The first step is to measure whatever can be easily measured. This is OK as far as it goes. The second step is to disregard that which can't be easily measured or to give it an arbitrary quantitative value. This is artificial and misleading. The third step is to presume that what can't be measured easily really isn't important. This is blindness. The fourth step is to say that what can't be easily measured really doesn't exist. This is suicide.
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
Ethan Mollick (Wharton professor, prominent AI commentator) applying the McNamara fallacy to AI training — the idea that training on easily-measurable proxies leads models to implicitly treat unmeasurable things as nonexistent. Directly resonant with the project's Goodharting-model-welfare-equals-Goodharting-alignment theme (Zvi's argument in memory notes): training on self-report/behavioral metrics collapses the appearing-aligned vs being-aligned distinction, and analogously collapses "measurable capability" vs whatever isn't captured by benchmarks (e.g. subjective experience, values).