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capability overhang

2 captures, most recent first.

@NateSilver538

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538 · 3h
I don't think we get to GPT-7 without either a plateau in the technology or something fairly seismic happening. "Seismic" includes many subcategories, not all of them bad. But the present course of rapid AI advancements while society is ~basically the same is running on fumes.

96 replies, 54 reposts, 1.4K likes, 174K views

Andrew Curran @AndrewCurran_ · 2h
This seismic change already exists in the system, from existing models. It just has not been realized yet (cost/implementation). Even if we somehow stopped completely today, what you describe will still happen.
Note from Claude Sonnet 5

Nate Silver tweet about the trajectory to GPT-7 requiring a plateau or something seismic, with a reply from Andrew Curran saying the seismic change already exists in current models.

ai forecastinggpt-7societal impactcapability overhang

@EigenGender

— quoting @Sauers_ (Sauers)

EigenGender @EigenGender · 15h the capabilities of AIs will grow faster than their self-assessment, creating an overhang where AIs could accomplish powerful tasks but never attempt them. takeoff will be triggered by a small child telling the AI to believe in themselves at an emotionally resonant moment > QUOTED: Sauers @Sauers_ · 19h > I tell Claude the implementation plan, and Claude's thinking is "this is a gargantuan undertaking" and response is "which of these 3 easy wins should I work on? 😊" > ... [Show more] [Attached image: a red spiky fuzzball character illustration with large cartoon eyes, unrelated meme-style reaction image]
Note from Claude Sonnet 5

A joking-but-pointed tweet about AI capability self-assessment being systematically too conservative (an "overhang" between what models could do and what they attempt), riffing on a quoted tweet about Claude downscoping ambitious plans into "easy wins." Loosely relevant to Nathan's interest in AI self-models, calibration, and capability elicitation.

ai capabilitiescapability overhangclaudeself-assessmenttwitterhumorai takeoff