— reposted by Séb Krier), quoting own earlier post — saved image
Séb Krier reposted Ben Moll @ben_moll [Follow] Thanks to @willmacaskill, @SamuelAlbanie, @tomcohen for taking the other side of this bet at 4:1 odds and to @andrewho03 for joining on my side. Here are the final terms we agreed on benjaminmoll.com/growth_bet/ More (within) ~7 years from now [grinning face emoji] [embedded image of terms document] Bet on Explosive AI-Driven Growth A bet on near-term explosive AI-driven growth: whether U.S. real GDP per capita will grow by at least 15% within a single year (measured relative to prior peak) by the end of 2033. Agreed on X, 15–16 August 2026. This document summarizes the agreed terms. 1. Parties and stakes Fast-growth side (wins if the growth condition in Section 2 is met): • William MacAskill https://www.williammacaskill.com/ — $10,000 • Samuel Albanie https://samuelalbanie.com/ — $25,000 • Tom Cohen https://x.com/tomcohen — $25,000 • Total: $60,000 No-fast-growth side (wins otherwise): • Benjamin Moll http://benjaminmoll.com/ — $40,000 • Andrew Ho https://andrewho.xyz/ — $200,000 • Total: $240,000 Odds: 4:1 — every $1 staked by the fast-growth side is matched by $4 from the no-fast-growth side. Implied probability of the fast-growth scenario: 20%. 2. Resolution criterion The fast-growth side wins if there is any quarter Q, up to and including 2033Q4, such that U.S. real GDP per capita in Q is at least 15% higher than the previous peak, defined as the highest quarterly real GDP per capita recorded in any quarter up to and including Q-4 (i.e., as of one year before Q). Otherwise the no-fast-growth side wins. [quoted post] Ben Moll @ben_moll · Aug 14 Would anyone like to take the other side of the following bet? I bet you (say) $25k inflation-adjusted that U.S. per capita real GDP growth will be <15% per annum in 2033 or any year before that. (15% implies a doubling time of ~5 years.)... 3:19 AM · Aug 27, 2026 · 26.2K Views
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
Ben Moll's tweet finalizing a public bet on explosive AI-driven growth (US real GDP per capita rising 15% over a prior peak within a year by end of 2033), with the terms document embedded: MacAskill, Albanie and Cohen on the fast-growth side ($60k total) against Moll and Andrew Ho ($240k) at 4:1 odds. Quotes Moll's Aug 14 offer. A floating compose button overlaps the lower right.
ai forecastingeconomic growth betexplosive growthgdp per capitawill macaskillbenjamin moll