Tim Duffy

[repost icon] Sichu Lu reposted @timfduffy (Tim Duffy) — 50m If you use the middle of each provided range as the mean for that bucket, total contributed hours are ~1.5x as high as they were a year ago. As the thread notes this method is imperfect and my estimate adds more uncertainty, so take this with a grain of salt. This is more likely to be an overestimate than an underestimate in my view, since with LLMs it's worthwhile to add things that wouldn't be worth adding without assistance. So the time to create estimates probably rise more than value created. [Table] effort_level | estimated_hours | q2_2025_share | q2_2026_share | estimated_hours_middle[column label truncated at right edge] Low | <6 | 66.3 | 50.9 | 3[possibly truncated] Medium | 6-12 | 18.8 | 24 | 9[possibly truncated] High | 12-24 | 12.9 | 16.9 | 18[possibly truncated] Very high | 24-48 | 2 | 7.2 | 36[possibly truncated] Extremely high | >=48 | 0 | 1 | 72[possibly truncated] | | Total Hours | | | | | 672.3 | 1004.1 | | | | Speedup Factor | | | | | 1.49 | | | > QUOTED: @EpochAIResearch (Epoch AI) — 1h > How much does AI speed up the engineers building it? We analyzed contributions to OpenAI's public Codex repository to gather evidence. ... [truncated by platform] > [Image: bar chart thumbnail, not legible at this resolution]