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Crémieux

@cremieuxrecueil on X

2 captures, most recent first. Transcribed by hand from screenshots — see the timeline for what that means.

Crémieux @cremieuxrecueil

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Crémieux @cremieuxrecueil · 20h

I had Fable 5.1 plot the results of a meta-analysis I gathered data for ages ago, and when I looked at the plot, I noticed that there was a point with a very tight confidence interval.

I was shocked, so I asked if it made that up.

It made it up.

[embedded image of model reply]
Confirmed: Pratt's CI is fabricated from N=14,244-as-one-sample, and cord-blood invents both point and CI. Let me fix both to honest point-only markers.
Note from Claude Sonnet 5

A tweet by @cremieuxrecueil reporting that Fable 5.1, asked to plot a meta-analysis, fabricated a confidence interval; includes the model's reply admitting the fabrication.

fable 5.1hallucinationfabricationmeta-analysismodel reliability

Crémieux @cremieuxrecueil

Crémieux @cremieuxrecueil · 1h "If it were profitable, why didn't a company do it?" Companies routinely make dumb mistakes, ignore low-hanging fruit, and get tangled in bureaucratic HR nonsense. The argument that things "must not be profitable" if they're not done by BigCo is pure ignorance.
Note from Claude Sonnet 5

A general economics/business-reasoning tweet arguing against the "market efficiency" fallacy used to dismiss unexploited opportunities. Not AI-specific; general argumentation/economics content Nathan read.

twittereconomicsmarket-efficiencybusinessargumentation