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Bayesian @Bayesian0_0 · 2h Fun fact: Across 44 benchmarks that have a "Human baseline", the human baseline BECI (a personal replication of the Epoch Capabilities Index) comes out at 166.7, which projections say will be beat by AI models around october 2026!
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
Attached chart titled 'Human baseline on the BECI scale (pooled human rows scored against frozen benchmark parameters; human data never enters the fit)': a scatter plot of scattered light-blue 'Models' points and a dark blue stepped 'Model frontier' line rising from ~105 BECI in 2023-01 to ~165 by mid-2026, with a dotted 'Frontier trend' line, a red horizontal 'Human baseline (pooled)' band at 166.7, and a dashed red vertical line marking a projected trend crossing around 2026-10-16, x-axis release date 2023-01 to 2026-07, y-axis BECI 60-180ish.
ai capabilitiesbenchmarksbeciepoch capabilities indexforecastingtwitter