@patio11

Complex Systems this week is with the CEO and lead scientist of AeroLamp, about the science behind UVC (germicidal light), what remains to be solved to unblock adoption, and what sort of curves we can expect for impact, deployment, and cost. [complexsystemspodcast.com The economics of putting germicidal light in every room, with Misha Gurevich and Vivian Belenky of...](https://t.co/9QK9sB1MlY) --- This is our third episode on UVC. I think it is my sleeper hit technology for most underrated in importance relative to current understanding among either the public or cognoscenti. We pay an enormous cost for infectious disease. It may be more optional than we presently think. --- I am, as always, reminded of our experience with waterborne illnesses. They were experienced as a fact of nature for centuries, and then we discovered the mechanism, and we engineered our environment to be very inhospitatable to them, and then that was basically the end of that. --- We discuss the research base for UVC, and where the open questions still are. Is it factually germicidal: oh yes. Does it demonstrably decrease infections in controlled settings: certainly seems to, with large effect sizes (90% reduction in TB in a clinical setting w/ animals). --- In talking to people about this for years many are worried about safety. We've got an increasing evidence base there, in favor. I also think this is the precautionary principle talking, and the precautionary principle never has to answer for the safety of letting people get ill. --- Many people report they are still dealing with severe sequalae to covid, years later. It would be a very funny thing if covid were the only airborne disease to have years-long sequalae. It is possible modernity has ~100% of society suffering Long Flu. We have had no alternative. --- I earnestly hope that my grandkids learn about the flu like I learned about typhoid: it's in the history books and sounds just \*awful\*. "You had a \_season\_ named after that one, gramps?" "Yeah." "When did it end?" "It was a bunch of things, prominently including the lamps." --- "And were the lamps expensive." "No." "And were they newly-developed technology." "Mostly no." "Oh so they were incredibly difficult to manufacture and install." "Oh no, similar to other lamps to a first approximation." "So what was the barrier?" "Deciding to do it. --- I have to underline: this is a thing you could commercially aquire today, for gaming console amounts of money. See the discussion in the episode on whether it makes sense to do it for homes on current evidence base. (I don't yet have it at home, but am considering it.) --- And because it's impossible to have a conversation about infectious dieases without mentioning vaccines, I have to rant for a moment: it is crazymaking to be that we do not deploy plural billions of dollars to making vaccines hurt less. We have interventions and they're ~free. --- The ones that take almost zero provider time to adopt are widely adopted, like having infants breastfeed during their vaccines. The ones which take 15 seconds, like applying a ShotBlocker or cold spray or similar, are largely not adopted. We should happily buy those 15 seconds. --- Society paid enormous amounts of attentioon to so-called vaccine hesitancy. When we survey potential patients, ~10% of them name fear of needles as their only concern. I'd call that "pain hesitancy" and perhaps we just reduce the pain versus hoping people will come to enjoy it.