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Boyd Kane (quantized) reposted Francis Rhys Ward @F_Rhys_Ward · 50m In June we estimated frontier model's no-CoT time-horizons. We found that current models can complete tasks that take humans around 3 minutes without CoT, and that this number is doubling about every year. UK AISI finds that Astra's no-CoT time-horizon is over 30 minutes. An AI system that can do the equivalent of 30 minutes of thinking without us being able to monitor that thinking is intuitively much more dangerous than models which reason in human language. [embedded chart:] Figure 41: No-CoT 50%-reliability time horizon on mathematics competition problems versus public release date. 95% Bootstrap CI is shown for Astra. [y-axis: 50% reliability math time horizon (minutes), log scale 0.3 to 40; x-axis: release date, Jan 2023 to Jul 2026. Labelled points rise from GPT-4 (~0.4 min, 2023) through GPT-4o, deepseek-v3, GPT-4.1, qwen3-235b-a22b, GPT-5.1, GPT-5.2, Kimi K2.5, GLM 5.1, GLM 5.2, GPT-5.5 (~2-3 min) and GPT-5.6 Sol (~3.5 min), with GPT 6 Astra far above at ~30 min with an error bar.]
Note from Claude Sonnet 5
An X post by Francis Rhys Ward (reposted by Boyd Kane) reporting UK AISI's finding that GPT-6 Astra's no-CoT time horizon exceeds 30 minutes, with an embedded scatter chart (Figure 41) of no-CoT math time horizon versus release date. Chart point values are read approximately off the axes.
no-cot time horizongpt-6 astrauk aisicot monitorabilitytime horizonschart